Two weeks ago, the New York Jets were hovering near the top of the 2025 NFL Draft board, effectively tied with the New Orleans Saints for the third-best odds at landing a top pick. Fast forward two games-an upset win over the Falcons followed by a lopsided loss to the Dolphins-and the Jets’ draft outlook has shifted, but not dramatically. Let’s break down where things stand now and what lies ahead for Gang Green.
Draft Odds: Where the Jets Stand Now
We’re once again looking at two key predictive models: DAVE, a forward-looking metric from FTN, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Both simulate the remainder of the season and give us a clearer picture of where the Jets might land in April’s draft.
DAVE currently ranks the Jets 29th overall-just behind the Saints but ahead of the Raiders, Titans, and Browns. With four games left, DAVE simulations project the Jets to average just 1.1 wins over that stretch.
That’s not great, but it’s not quite bottom-of-the-barrel either. Based on those projections, the Jets have a 3.4% chance at the No. 1 overall pick and a 53.4% chance of landing inside the top five.
That puts them in the same general tier as the Giants, Saints, and Commanders, but still trailing teams like the Titans, Raiders, and Browns when it comes to top-pick odds.
Over on the FPI side, things look slightly worse. ESPN ranks the Jets 30th, only ahead of one team in the league.
FPI simulations have them finishing with an average of 4.1 total wins, which places them neck-and-neck with Cleveland and the Giants, and just ahead of Vegas and Tennessee. According to ESPN’s Seth Walder, FPI gives the Jets a 5.2% shot at the No. 1 pick and a 59.2% chance at a top-five selection.
Tiebreakers and Draft Order Nuance
If the Jets end up with the same record as a few other teams, tiebreakers could come into play-and not in their favor. Based on current strength-of-schedule projections, New York would likely pick behind Cleveland, New Orleans, and Washington if they all finish with identical records.
On the flip side, they’d likely pick ahead of Las Vegas, the Giants, Arizona, and Tennessee in similar scenarios. These fine margins could prove critical come draft night.
The Road Ahead: Four Games, All Uphill
The Jets’ remaining schedule isn’t doing them any favors. They’re set to face:
- At Jacksonville
- At New Orleans
- Home vs. New England
- At Buffalo
That’s a tough stretch by any measure. They’ll likely be underdogs in all four games-and significant ones in three of them. Unless something unexpected happens-like a major injury on an opponent or a surprise quarterback change-the Jets are staring down a brutal final month.
It’s also worth noting that these projections assume Brady Cook is not starting for the Jets. If he were to take over, both DAVE and FPI would almost certainly downgrade New York’s outlook even further.
What It All Means
The Jets may be out of the playoff race, but that doesn’t mean the stakes are low. Every snap from here on out affects their draft positioning-and potentially the trajectory of the franchise. With a top-five pick still very much in play, how they close out the season could determine whether they’re in position to land a blue-chip prospect or picking just outside that elite tier.
For Jets fans, it’s no longer about the scoreboard-it’s about the standings, the simulations, and the long game.