Jets fans are walking into a familiar kind of quarterback bet, and that’s exactly why Geno Smith might fit.
Smith is set to open training camp as the starter for the fourth straight year, and this time the stage is back in New York with the Jets after stops with the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders. He’s locked in as the Week 1 guy, but the situation around him still carries a whiff of uncertainty - the same sort of uncertainty that seemed to bring out the best version of him in Seattle.
That’s the part Jets fans should pay attention to. Smith has tended to answer questions when the questions get loud.
The clearest example came in 2022, when he was in a real battle with Drew Lock for the Seahawks’ starting job. Seattle had already moved on from Russell Wilson, and Smith had flashed enough in four games the year before to keep himself in the conversation.
He was the unofficial favorite, sure, but he still had to finish the job. He did, and the result was Comeback Player of the Year honors in his first season as a starter since 2014.
Now he’s back in a version of that same spot. The expectations in Las Vegas last offseason were modest - league-average play under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly would have been enough. Instead, Smith led the league in interceptions, Kelly was fired in late November, and Carroll lost his job when the season ended.
So the big-picture outlook is pretty clear: the only real consensus is that Smith probably won’t be the Jets’ starter in 2027. He’ll turn 36 in October, and New York has three first-round picks next spring.
Still, the lesson from Seattle is hard to ignore. Smith has shown he can play his best football when people aren’t sure what to make of him.
That’s why the questions around him matter. Could he be an efficient stopgap quarterback? Or will rookie Cade Klubnik be the starter by November?
Whatever the answer ends up being, the Jets are not asking Smith to be the player he was in 2022 or 2023. He’s older now, more seasoned, and a lot farther removed from the quarterback who left New York in 2017. But he can still give them something they’ve rarely had over the last decade: above-average quarterback play.
And with the Jets’ roster in decent shape and the Dolphins’ rebuild opening a path to avoid last place, there’s at least a real scenario where Smith keeps New York in the playoff conversation into Thanksgiving.
That would be enough to change the story around him - and maybe, just maybe, give the Jets the kind of steady quarterbacking they’ve been chasing for years.
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