The Jets are still 26 days away from kicking off the season in Music City against their former head coach, Robert Saleh, and the Tennessee Titans, but one issue has already taken over the conversation around Florham Park.
Can Geno Smith protect the football?
That question has only gotten louder as training camp and the preseason have rolled on, and Smith’s first Jets camp since 2016 has brought both the promise and the danger that come with his game. On one hand, he’s attacking one-on-one matchups and pushing the ball downfield in a way New York hasn’t seen from its quarterbacks in a long time. With Smith at quarterback, the passing game could be explosive.
“Seriously, folks: When Geno sees single-high, he does not hesitate to attack the defense outside the numbers. It’s why the likes of AD Mitchell have been so active during the offseason,” wrote Jets X-Factor’s Robby Sabo of Smith’s approach in camp.
But the aggressive approach has come with a cost. Smith threw two interceptions in the Jets’ recent joint practice against the Buccaneers, though one looked to be the result of Garrett Wilson falling down. Then on Monday, Smith was picked off by safety Andre Cisco after missing Isaiah Williams by “a wide margin,” per Jets X-Factor’s Connor Long.
That kind of risk is exactly why Smith’s ball security has become the central issue for a team trying to figure out how far it can go in 2026. He led the league with 17 interceptions in 15 starts last season, and the Jets may be good enough to compete if they win the turnover battle - but probably not talented enough to keep winning if they keep losing it.
The numbers tell the story. Since 2022, Smith is 16-8 as a starter when he does not turn the ball over, either by interception or lost fumble. When he does cough it up at least once, he’s 13-27.
There’s at least a case for optimism, though. Pro Football Focus labeled Smith the “unluckiest” quarterback of the season because he threw 4.7 more interceptions than expected based on his turnover-worthy throws. If that kind of regression shows up, a drop of about five picks would put him at 12 interceptions - the same average he posted over 17 games in his three seasons starting for the Seattle Seahawks, when he threw 35 interceptions in 49 starts.
That would look a lot more manageable for the Jets.
The problem is that camp hasn’t exactly calmed the nerves. Smith has looked interception-prone throughout the summer, and that has raised the obvious question of whether the bounce-back people are waiting for will actually arrive.
There is, of course, another side to the camp tape. The Jets may be encouraging Smith to take chances so they can evaluate their receivers and defensive backs in contested situations, and that has clearly created opportunities for young players.
Adonai Mitchell has emerged as the Jets’ WR2 after repeatedly connecting with Smith on vertical throws. Isaiah Williams, who was initially expected to make the roster because of his return ability, is now the favorite to win the starting slot receiver job after making a series of strong downfield catches.
Smith’s presence has helped the Jets on both sides of the ball. He brings veteran poise, gets teammates lined up correctly, and his style naturally creates more chances for everyone to get meaningful reps.
Still, the real proof has to come in games that count. Smith has to show that last season’s 17-interception spiral in Las Vegas was not the real version of him. The stat sheet can point to bad luck, and the practice clips can be explained away, but until he strings together turnover-free games in a Jets uniform, skepticism is going to linger in Gotham City.
And that skepticism is not coming from nowhere. Fans remember what Smith looked like the last time he wore green and white, and those 43 turnovers in his 33 games as a Jet still sit heavy in the memory of New Yorkers and New Jerseyans.
That history is old, and it is not exactly fair to judge him by it. But fan memory does not work on a clean slate, and Smith is going to have to earn trust all over again.
For all the easy reasons to pencil him in as a turnover machine, there are just as many reasons to think the opposite could happen. He was far more secure with the ball during his three years in Seattle than he was in Las Vegas, and it’s possible the Raiders’ poor supporting cast played a major role in last season’s issues. Now he’s in a better environment in terms of weaponry and offensive line play, even if the coaching situation is still to be determined.
And there’s also the simple fact that camp is not a game. Smith’s job in practice is to help the team improve, not to play it safe at all costs. Taking shots gives the receivers and defensive backs more work, and it gives the entire roster more opportunities to sharpen its skills.
So the concern is real, and it has grown louder. But so has the case for optimism. If Smith’s interception total drops the way the Jets hope, it could set up a surprisingly competitive season.
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Now the momentum has taken a hard turn. Bamba is dealing with a knee injury that will sideline him for several weeks, and the timing is especially damaging for a player still trying to secure his place in the league. The Jets will have to decide how to handle the roster spot, including whether a move to injured reserve makes the most sense, which would knock him out for the rest of the year. [Read more 🡒]