After a pair of rocky starts to the season, both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have clawed their way out of the league’s basement. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves - neither team is exactly firing on all cylinders. What we do have, though, is a matchup between two squads that have shown real signs of life heading into the final stretch of the season.
**The Dolphins’ resurgence has been one of the more intriguing storylines of the past month. ** After stumbling out of the gate with a 1-6 record, Miami has flipped the script with wins in four of its last five games.
The latest came in a 21-17 victory over the Saints - a gritty, grind-it-out kind of win that speaks to a team finding its identity. Meanwhile, the Jets, who opened the year with seven straight losses, have also shown some fight.
Their dramatic 27-24 win over the Falcons - sealed by a 56-yard Nick Folk field goal as time expired - marked their third win in five games.
Now, the two AFC East rivals meet again, with Miami aiming to sweep the season series for the second time in three years. The Dolphins took the first meeting back in late September, 27-21, and they’ll look to double down this Sunday.
Jets' Hopes Hinge on Taylor and a Leaky Run Defense
If the Jets are going to keep their slim playoff hopes alive - and we do mean slim - it starts with Tyrod Taylor. The veteran quarterback has brought a steady hand to the offense after Justin Fields struggled to find rhythm early in the year.
Taylor’s not putting up gaudy numbers, but he’s brought stability and, more importantly, wins. That alone has been a breath of fresh air in a season that’s lacked many.
But the real challenge for New York lies on the other side of the ball. The Jets’ run defense has been a glaring weakness all season, and it’s not getting any easier this week.
Miami’s ground game has been on a tear during its recent surge, with De’Von Achane looking like a human highlight reel. Over the last three weeks, Achane has piled up over 425 rushing yards - a blistering pace that few backs in the league can match.
He also had 99 yards the last time these two teams met.
If the Jets can’t find a way to plug the gaps and slow down Achane, it’s going to be a long afternoon. The Falcons’ Bijan Robinson gashed them for 142 yards just last week, and Miami’s offensive line has been opening up lanes with surgical precision. This is the matchup to watch - Achane’s explosiveness against a Jets front that’s struggled to stop anyone on the ground.
Playoff Picture: Jets on the Brink, Dolphins Still Breathing
Let’s talk stakes. For the Jets, this game is do-or-die.
A loss or tie officially eliminates them from playoff contention, extending the NFL’s longest active postseason drought to 15 seasons. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a franchise still searching for a long-term answer under center and some consistency in the win column.
Miami, on the other hand, still has a pulse - barely. Sitting at 5-7, the Dolphins are currently 11th in the AFC standings, just behind the 6-6 Chiefs.
The path to the playoffs is narrow and steep, but not impossible. They’ll likely need to win out, which includes home games against the Bengals and Buccaneers, plus tough road tests in Pittsburgh and New England.
It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened in December.
Cold Weather Could Be the X-Factor
One wrinkle that could impact Sunday’s showdown? The weather.
The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 40s - and that could be a problem for Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. While he’s a perfect 6-0 against the Jets in his career, he’s also 0-7 when the kickoff temperature is 46 degrees or colder.
It’s a stat that’s hard to ignore, especially as we get deeper into the season and the elements start playing a bigger role.
Still, Tagovailoa has the edge in this matchup. He’s been efficient, and when the run game is humming like it has been lately, it opens up everything else for Miami’s offense. The Dolphins also hold a 62-57-1 all-time series lead over the Jets, and while history doesn’t win games, it’s worth noting that Miami has had the upper hand in recent years.
Prediction: Dolphins Keep Rolling
This one has the feel of a classic AFC East slugfest - physical, gritty, and likely decided in the trenches. The Jets have been playing better, no question, and they’re not going to roll over. But Miami’s momentum is real, and Achane gives them a game-breaking weapon that New York simply hasn’t shown the ability to contain.
Even with the cold weather and a shaky road record (Miami’s just 1-4 away from home this year), the Dolphins look like the more complete team right now. If they can establish the run early and keep the pressure off Tagovailoa, they should be able to grind out another win and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5 | Over 41.5