After rough starts that had fans wondering if either team would find its footing this season, both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have managed to claw their way back into something resembling form. The Dolphins opened the year at 1-6 but have now won four of their last five to sit at 5-7. The Jets, meanwhile, began the season with seven straight losses but have gone 3-2 in their last five, including a dramatic walk-off win last week.
Let’s be clear: neither team is lighting up the AFC. But they’re no longer the punchlines they were back in September. And when these two face off on Sunday, there’s more on the line than just pride - especially for the Jets, whose playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
The Stakes: Jets on the Brink
For New York, it’s do-or-die time. A loss or even a tie officially knocks them out of playoff contention, extending the league’s longest active postseason drought to 15 years.
That’s a brutal stat for a franchise that’s been searching for relevance for over a decade. And with games still to come against the Jaguars, Patriots, and Bills, the road ahead doesn’t get any easier.
But if there’s any hope of keeping that faint playoff pulse alive, it starts with quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Since taking over for Justin Fields, Taylor has brought a level of stability and spark that the Jets offense was sorely lacking. He’s not putting up video game numbers, but he’s managing games, making plays when needed, and - most importantly - winning.
Miami’s Momentum: Riding the Ground Game
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are starting to look like a team that’s remembered how to win. Their 21-17 victory over the Saints last week was their third straight, and they’re trending in the right direction at just the right time.
The key? A punishing run game that’s taken over in recent weeks.
De’Von Achane has been the driving force behind that resurgence. Over the last three games, he’s racked up over 425 yards on the ground, averaging a staggering 143.6 rushing yards per contest.
He’s not just hitting holes - he’s exploding through them. And if you’re wondering whether that’s sustainable, just ask the Saints, Commanders, or Patriots, who couldn’t find an answer for him.
The Jets defense, especially against the run, has been a weak spot all season - and that’s putting it kindly. Just last week, Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson gashed them for 142 yards. If New York can’t tighten things up in the trenches, Achane could be in for another monster day.
Tua vs. the Cold
There’s another wrinkle to keep an eye on: the weather. Sunday’s game is expected to be played in temperatures hovering in the low 40s - and that could matter more than you think.
Tua Tagovailoa has been excellent against the Jets in his career, boasting a 6-0 record as a starter. That’s even better than Dan Marino, who went 17-13 against the Jets during his Hall of Fame run.
But here’s the catch: Tua is 0-7 in games where the kickoff temperature is 46 degrees or lower. Cold weather has been his kryptonite, and with Sunday shaping up to be another chilly one, it’s a legitimate factor to watch.
The Playoff Picture: Faint Hope for Miami
While the Jets are staring down elimination, the Dolphins still have a narrow - very narrow - path to the postseason. Sitting at 5-7 and 11th in the AFC standings, they’re behind teams like the 6-6 Chiefs and need a lot of help to sneak in.
But if they can run the table - with upcoming games against the Bengals, Buccaneers, Steelers, and Patriots - they at least give themselves a shot. It’s a long shot, but stranger things have happened in December.
Series History and What’s at Stake
Miami took the first meeting this season, a 27-21 win back on September 29. Another win here would give them the season sweep over New York for the second time in three years. Historically, the Dolphins lead the all-time series 62-57-1, and with both teams playing their best football of the season, this one has the makings of a gritty, physical AFC East battle.
Prediction: Dolphins Keep Rolling
Divisional games are always unpredictable, and the Jets have shown enough fight lately to make this one interesting. But Miami’s run game is humming, and unless the Jets can suddenly plug the leaks up front, Achane is poised to take over again.
Yes, the weather could be an issue for Tua. And yes, the Dolphins are just 1-4 on the road this season. But with the way they’re playing right now - especially on the ground - they look like the more complete team.
Pick: Dolphins -2.5, Over 41.5