NHL contract chatter has a new centerpiece, and it’s Matthew Schaefer.
After Leo Carlsson and Macklin Celebrini helped reset the market this month, the attention naturally turned to the next young star in line. Carlsson landed at five years and $18 million annually in Anaheim, then Celebrini topped that at $18.8 million per season. Connor Bedard already had his deal in place at five years and $15 million in Chicago, and now names like Will Smith, Adam Fantilli, and Schaefer are being pulled into the conversation.
Schaefer stands apart from that group. The New York Islanders defenseman is the reigning Calder Trophy winner, and the belief around him is that he could eventually become the league’s first $20 million-per-year defenseman. That kind of number would have sounded absurd not long ago, but with the cap rising and elite young players cashing in fast, it no longer feels out of reach.
Chris Pronger kicked off part of the discussion this week when he wrote, “Well now the dominoes are starting to fall. [Leo] Carlsson contract set the market and now [Connor] Bedard and [Macklin] Celebrini have followed suit.
With the cap continuing to go higher the next few years who surpasses Celebrini?” The answer, more and more, points to Schaefer.
There are other candidates who could get there. Cale Makar has the talent to do it, but Nathan MacKinnon’s contract gives the Avalanche an internal ceiling of sorts.
In Minnesota, Quinn Hughes could be in line for big money, though Kirill Kaprizov and Hughes’ preference for a three-year deal tied to his brother Jack’s timeline could shape that number. With the Islanders, though, Schaefer is the guy.
He’s already viewed as the face of the franchise, and the team is expected to pay what the market demands.
The timing may come sooner than some expect. Schaefer has been mentioned as the likely next player to jump past Celebrini’s number, possibly as soon as next summer.
Still, Schaefer has said his focus is elsewhere. At the Smilezone Foundation Celebrity Golf Tournament, he was asked about his next contract and answered plainly: “I don’t care about the money. I just want to play the game of hockey,” he said, adding that he wants to win in a Long Island uniform with the right people around him.
Celebrini’s deal is a reminder that even when a young star says he wants to help the team, the final number can still be massive. He said he wanted to help out the Sharks, and he did, but $18.8 million per season was still a huge payday.
That’s the reality Schaefer is walking into. A team-friendly deal doesn’t mean what it used to, and the Islanders know they’ll have to meet the market when the time comes. Schaefer may not be chasing every last dollar, but he’s also not likely to leave millions sitting on the table.
So the question isn’t whether Schaefer will get paid. It’s how high the number climbs before he signs.
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