Matthew Schaefer’s first NHL season was already the kind of debut that sends expectations through the roof. Now, after Scott Wheeler’s latest prospect tier rankings, the New York Islanders defenseman has been pushed into a neighborhood usually reserved for the game’s elite blue-liners.
Wheeler of The Athletic placed the 19-year-old in Tier 1B, a spot he said points toward something bigger than just stardom. In Wheeler’s view, Schaefer’s projection is now basically “future-best-D-in-the-world.”
That is rare company. Wheeler said only four defensemen are currently in Tier 1 of his overall player tiers: Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski and Rasmus Dahlin. Putting Schaefer anywhere near that class after just one NHL season says everything about how high his ceiling is viewed around the league.
And for some scouts, Wheeler’s ranking still wasn’t aggressive enough. He wrote that after slotting Schaefer into Tier 1B, the only response he got came from a scout who thought Schaefer should be in Tier 1A instead. That would place him above Makar and Hughes in Wheeler’s current setup.
Schaefer certainly gave evaluators plenty to chew on. The No. 1 pick in the 2025 NHL Draft put up 59 points, scored 23 goals, and became the youngest Calder Trophy winner in league history.
Wheeler’s takeaway wasn’t just that Schaefer looks like an All-Star or even a steady Norris Trophy threat. He’s talking about a player whose best-case future could be at the very top of the position.
“That kind of belief in a player and person, at just 19 ... is rare enough,” Wheeler wrote. “In a defenseman? Practically unheard of.”
For the Islanders, that’s a pretty stunning place to be. Schaefer heads into Year 2 with expectations that are already sky-high, and now they’ve been raised again.
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