Matthew Schaefer is already being mentioned with the best young players in the league, and that alone says plenty about how fast the New York Islanders blueliner has risen.
The Athletic’s recent ranking of NHL’s best young players placed Schaefer in the upper echelon, as a 1B player in the “MVP” caliber conversation. That naturally opens the door to a bigger question: could a defenseman like Schaefer actually win the Hart Trophy?
That kind of season is almost unheard of for a blueliner.
Only three defensemen have ever won the NHL’s MVP award. Chris Pronger was the last to do it in 2000.
Before that, Bobby Orr claimed it three straight times from 1970 to 1972. The other defenseman on the list is Babe Pratt of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who won it in 1944.
More goalies have won the Hart Trophy than defensemen.
So yes, the bar is towering. But Schaefer is the kind of player who at least makes the thought feel possible.
There are other gifted young defensemen around the league - Lane Hutson, Jackson LaCombe, Moritz Seider, Luke Hughes, and Jake Sanderson among them - and many of them may end up with Norris Trophies in their futures. A Hart Trophy, though, is another level entirely.
Schaefer’s appeal is that he already looks different. He put together a career season by blueliner standards at 18, which is exactly the sort of starting point that gets people talking about historic upside.
Still, the numbers required for a defenseman to break through with Hart Trophy voters are massive. Pronger’s 1999-2000 season included 14 goals, 48 assists, and 62 points, along with more than 30 minutes of ice time per night and a plus-52 rating. Orr’s 1970 season was even louder, with 120 points and an Art Ross Trophy to go with it.
That’s the level of production - or something equally unforgettable - Schaefer would need to chase to enter the Hart conversation in a serious way. It could mean outrageous point totals, or it could mean a track record built over multiple seasons of logging over 30 minutes a night. It might also require the Islanders to have a truly dominant regular season, with Schaefer playing a starring role in something unforgettable.
The talent is there. The path is brutally narrow. But among NHL defensemen, Schaefer looks like the one with the best shot to make voters even consider it.