The Islanders are heading into the season with Mathew Barzal already on the shelf, and that’s the kind of setback that can sting a team right out of the gate. Still, the bigger picture around Barzal points to a player who can put together a monster year once he’s back.
The appeal starts with the player himself. Barzal is still the same talent who posted 85 points in 2017-18 and 80 in 2023-24, and he remains a natural fit alongside captain Bo Horvat. He produced 19 goals and 72 points in 81 games last season, a full-year total he can absolutely build on if the missed time doesn’t linger.
The obvious concern is the knee injury that has him out now. It’s the same knee that cost him most of the 2024-25 season, so there’s no pretending that part of the story doesn’t matter. But if this turns out to be only a minor interruption to his 2026-27 debut, Barzal should still be lined up for a huge season.
The underlying numbers back that up. In his injury-shortened 2024-25 campaign, Barzal posted a 14.6 above expected goals rating.
That number settled to 6.4 last season, which still points in a productive direction. If he stays in that 5-to-6 range and gets into more than 70 games, 20 goals is well within reach.
His points rate is even more eye-catching. Over the last two seasons, Barzal has averaged 1.60 points per 60 minutes, and he’s gone above 2 points per 60 in earlier seasons. That kind of production makes every minute on the ice matter for the Islanders.
The possession numbers are solid, too. Barzal has finished with a positive Corsi every season, and while last year’s mark slipped from 58 to 52, that still counts as a strong figure. His Relative Corsi For, which has stayed above 7, is the number that really jumps off the page.
If Barzal stays healthy, the case for a big year is pretty straightforward. The only thing that can really get in the way is another serious injury.
There’s also a workload angle here for Peter DeBoer to consider. Barzal averaged about 15:40 per game last season, but if DeBoer can push him above 16 minutes a night - specifically 16:15 or more - that extra ice time could help him get past a point per game.
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Blue Jackets Face New Roster Questions After Serious Interest In Top Name
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Darche did not spell out every name the club pursued, but the effort itself says plenty about where the Islanders see themselves heading. In a market where one club's willingness to pay up can change the entire conversation, New York was left on the outside of a move it wanted to be part of, and that kind of missed opportunity tends to linger when the season starts and the roster picture gets clearer. [Read more 🡒]