The Islanders are running out of room for “it’s still early” talk.
A four-game skid has put the pressure squarely on a team that already looks like it needs to start banking points in a hurry. The unofficial Thanksgiving benchmark always hangs over November, and the numbers behind it are hard to ignore: teams outside a playoff spot by Thanksgiving have only about a 25% chance of getting in.
That’s the backdrop for the Isles right now, and it’s not a comfortable one.
Projected standings from Hockey Alchemy don’t do them any favors either. The model has the Islanders finishing 13th in the East with 87 points, a total that would leave them well short of the postseason cut line. Last season, the second wild card in the East went to the Ottawa Senators with 99 points, which only sharpens how steep the climb looks.
Hockey Alchemy’s projections also give the Islanders a 20% chance to make the playoffs, ahead of teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers, and Columbus Blue Jackets.
Projected NHL standings for 2026-27, through Nov 8.
East: CAR 124, NJD 113, TBL 109
West: VGK 110, MIN 109, COL 107
Points already earned plus simulations of the games left. https://t.co/BMblWDjFkd #NHL pic.twitter.com/yHY4SSGZv5
- Hockey Alchemy (@hockeyalchemy) November 9, 2026
The tricky part is that the teams sitting below the Islanders aren’t exactly pushovers. They’re talented groups with real star power, but age and inconsistency have dragged them down. That’s part of why the betting markets aren’t exactly rushing to buy into their playoff chances.
Still, this season isn’t locked into one path. The Islanders can change the story with a run, just like the Buffalo Sabres did last season when they were essentially written off around this same point and then surged into the playoffs.
No one is asking for a miracle. They don’t need to rattle off 15 straight wins and go wild. What they do need is a much steadier stretch than the 4-3-3 mark they’ve posted over their last 10 games.
Even the points they’ve salvaged haven’t always felt clean. Three of those losses came in overtime, and those are the kinds of games that can sting later.
The 5-4 loss to the New Jersey Devils a couple of nights ago was a prime example. The Islanders were up 4-2, let the Devils claw back, and walked away with one point instead of two.
Whether that Matthew Schaefer trip should have been called a penalty or not, the bigger issue was the game slipping away.
Those are the kinds of losses that can come back to haunt a team in March.
What makes this situation so awkward is that the Islanders don’t look broken. They’ve been solid defensively and have found scoring when they can. At the same time, there have been nights like Monday’s 3-2 shootout loss to the Sharks, when the offense simply vanished.
That leaves the club in a tough spot. There’s no obvious overhaul staring them in the face.
They already changed coaches. They added pieces across the roster.
A lineup shakeup could still be on the table, but the larger issue may be something less dramatic and harder to fix: injuries.
Alexander Romanov is out for the season. Mathew Barzal hasn’t played at all this year. Ryan Pulock, Calum Ritchie, and Matias Maccelli are also sidelined with various injuries.
And that’s where depth becomes the whole story.
The Islanders already responded by bringing in Logan Stanley in season, along with Ben Hutton, moves that worked out well for Mathieu Darche. The injuries also opened the door for Victor Eklund, who has looked good so far. But the absences have also forced Brayden Schenn back into the middle and taken Barzal - the team’s best offensive weapon - out of the lineup entirely.
The group hasn’t been a disaster. Far from it. Depth players like Mitchell Chaffee have contributed in limited roles, and the team has generally held up better than you might expect under the circumstances.
But depth players are not the names you want carrying the load for long.
Maybe the return of the injured regulars can give the Islanders the consistency they’ve been missing. If that happens, they may still be able to get this thing pointed in the right direction.
For now, though, the message is simple: time is precious. The Islanders need wins now, even without their best players.
That’s the job in front of them. And if the regulars do come back, they’ll need to rejoin a team that has already done enough to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
In Other News...
Islanders Face New Lineup Uncertainty After JG Pageau Exit
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Matias Maccelli and Ryan Pulock are expected to be inserted into the lineup, but the exact combinations remain unsettled for now. For an Islanders team trying to keep its structure intact, the timing of the change adds another layer of uncertainty, especially with a matchup against a Kings club that can punish any hesitation in the details. [Read more 🡒]
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There is at least some help on the way, with Mathew Barzal and Matias Maccelli nearing returns as the group tries to steady itself. Calum Ritchie, though, is expected to be out longer, which keeps the roster picture from getting any cleaner. Between the returning bodies and the coaching adjustments needed to keep the push alive, the next few nights could tell a lot about whether the Islanders can keep hanging around. [Read more 🡒]
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The fan-base discussion has taken on a life of its own, helped along by a viral piece that stirred up reactions well beyond the usual game-night noise. On the hockey side, there is still plenty for supporters to grab onto, from Matthew Schaefers statistical start to the season to recent praise for Kyle MacLeans physical edge and Logan Stanleys fit with the group, while the franchises history keeps surfacing too, including a reminder of Billy Smiths place in one memorable game. [Read more 🡒]