Jaxson Dart Just Got A Ceiling Check Giants Fans Will Notice

Deck: As Jaxson Dart hovers just outside The Athletic's QBI Top 20, questions linger about his rookie year volatility and future growth potential.

Jaxson Dart’s first showing in The Athletic’s new quarterback metric puts him outside the top 20, but not by much.

The New York Giants second-year quarterback landed at No. 21 in Austin Mock’s “QBI” rating, a stat designed to isolate what the quarterback is responsible for on each play and strip away the help - or harm - provided by the rest of the offense. Mock says the idea is to credit only what the quarterback supplies on a per-play basis, while adjusting for pressure, quick pressure, line and receiver quality, turnovers, drops, yards after the catch and more.

Mock also says QBI is opponent-aware, folds in EPA and success rate, and even incorporates PFF grades to add a film element. The system uses a 100-point baseline for “average,” with 101 described as starter-level play and 130 as “Pro Bowl” caliber.

Dart’s number places him in some notable company. He was one of three quarterbacks to land exactly at 100, alongside Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles and Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions.

Among last year’s rookie quarterbacks, only Tyler Shough finished higher, checking in at 103 and ranking 15th overall. Dart’s 100 slots him just ahead of Tennessee Titans quarterback Cam Ward at 78 and Cleveland Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders at 47.

That result lines up with the broader split that has already formed around Dart in NFL evaluation circles. In The Athletic’s annual Quarterback Tiers ranking, Dart was the highest-rated rookie quarterback at 24th, barely ahead of Ward at 25th and Shough in a tie for 26th. The wrinkle, though, was the way different evaluators viewed the two passers: defensive coaches were much higher on Dart, while offensive coaches and executives leaned toward Shough.

That divide tracks with how the two quarterbacks played. Dart’s 2025 season was described as more volatile, the kind of run where he could thrive in chaos and hit big plays, while Shough was viewed as more disciplined within the structure of the offense and more consistent down to down. That helps explain why Shough came out better in QBI, a metric that is built to reward efficiency and punish negative plays.

Even so, Mock cautions against treating a rookie QBI score as a clean forecast for Year 2. He says that when he tested the metric’s predictive value, it helped to shrink the weight of a quarterback’s rookie season, because first-year performance is not always the best snapshot of who a young quarterback will become.

That point matters for Dart, especially with the way his game is expected to evolve. The biggest unlock for him, as noted in the reporting, may be becoming more comfortable operating inside the structure of the offense.

That starts with cleaner footwork and better synchronization between his eyes, his progression and the rhythm of the play. If he can do that while still knowing when to ditch the script and play sandlot football, there’s a path to a real second-year jump.

There are already signs that progress may be happening. Reports from Giants training camp indicate Dart has improved in that area as the team has installed and refined its offense around him.

And this is just the beginning for QBI as a measuring stick. Mock says the metric will be used in weekly quarterback rankings, which should give a clearer picture of where Dart stands against the league’s starters once the early-season noise settles down. There’s no perfect stat for quarterback play, Mock acknowledges, but this one could help frame Dart’s performance - and his improvement - across the 2026 season.

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