Week 10 doesn’t decide the NFC East, but it can absolutely tilt the whole thing.
That’s the backdrop for Thursday night’s matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, a game that suddenly carries real weight for a division race that still feels wide open. The Giants come in at 5-2-1 and, according to Team Rankings, have a 69.5% chance to win the NFC East. Dallas sits at 4-5 with a 24.0% shot, while Washington is down at 6.4% at 2-5-1.
The Giants are 1.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Cowboys are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers. If New York takes care of Washington and Dallas falls, the standings would suddenly look a lot friendlier for the Giants: 6-2-1 for New York, 4-6 for Dallas, and 2-6-1 for Washington. That would give the Giants a 3½-game cushion.
From there, the math gets ugly for everybody else. If the Giants were to go a reasonable 3-5 the rest of the way, they’d finish 9-7-1. Dallas would need to go 6-1 just to get to 10 wins, which is what it would take to win the division because the Giants’ tie with Washington counts as half a victory.
If you’re a Cowboys fan, that’s a tough ask. If you’re the Giants, it’s the kind of week that can make the road look a whole lot clearer.
Of course, the swing works both ways. If the Giants lose Thursday and Dallas pulls off the upset against San Francisco, the NFC East picture tightens right back up.
Dallas would be only 1.5 games back, and Washington would still be hanging around with eight games left. That’s why this one matters so much.
Giants head coach John Harbaugh put it plainly when talking about Washington, and the same logic applies to the division race as a whole:
“This is for all the marbles. It’s a tie right now.
This is the tiebreaker. It’s like going to the second half tied, you have a chance to go win the game right now and be one up on these guys for the rest of the season.
So, it’s a big game.”
The schedule after Week 10 doesn’t exactly offer a soft landing, either. The Giants get Jacksonville in Week 11, then go to Indianapolis in Week 12.
After that comes San Francisco at home in Week 13, a trip to Seattle in Week 14, Cleveland in Week 15, Detroit in Week 16, Dallas at Dallas in Week 17, and Philadelphia in Week 18. The Cowboys, meanwhile, face Tennessee, Philadelphia, Seattle, a bye, the Rams, Jacksonville, the Giants, and Washington.
There are also a few football reasons Thursday night could get messy fast.
The first is Jayden Daniels and the damage he can do when plays break down. The Giants have already been burned by unscripted quarterback runs this season, and the worst example came in Week 5 against Washington, when Daniels ripped off touchdown runs of 38 and 26 yards. After that game, defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson said those runs “should never have happened.”
The challenge for New York is that the defense has leaned heavily on man coverage, which leaves defensive backs without eyes on the quarterback. The Giants have also used a spy only sparingly. How they handle that this time - if they change anything at all - will be worth watching.
Then there’s the weather. The Week 5 meeting in Landover, Md. was already a slop-fest on grass in rainy, miserable conditions. This one is shaping up to be another one, only this time on Field Turf in rainy, miserable, cold conditions.
The National Weather Service forecast for East Rutherford, N.J. calls for rain, a low around 40, north wind at 9 to 11 mph with gusts as high as 23 mph, and an 80% chance of precipitation. Between the forecast and the conditions, ball security is going to matter.
That’s not exactly been a Giants strength. They’ve fumbled 14 times this season and lost six of them.
Only the Packers, Patriots, Chargers, and Saints have more fumbles, with 15 each. The Giants also left points on the field in the first meeting when a glove-less Skattebo fumbled away a scoring chance in overtime.
Special teams could matter too. Rookie placekicker Dominic Zvada went just 2 of 5 on field-goal tries against Washington the first time around, missing from 50, 57, and 46 yards.
And then there’s Cam Skattebo, who has plenty to carry into this game. He’s a player who feeds off emotion, and he has no shortage of fuel.
There was the public, and now failed, Jonathan Taylor trade talk. There’s the reality that the NFL world has known the Giants have been looking for an upgrade from Skattebo as RB1 pretty much since John Harbaugh got the head-coaching job.
New York was in on Kenneth Walker in free agency, got connected to Jeremiyah Love in the draft, aggressively pursued Taylor, and even made a call about Bijan Robinson.
Add in the fact that Skattebo missed Sunday’s game against the Philadelphia Eagles - the game that would have marked his return to the place where he suffered his dislocated ankle in 2025 - and the costly fumble against Washington in Week 5, which led to his pseudo-benching in Week 6, and there’s plenty there for him to tap into.
The Giants could use that edge. They could also use a cleaner game. Thursday night may not be “for all the marbles,” but it’s close enough to feel like it.
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The Giants have turned October into something far more interesting than a rebuilding exercise. At 5-2-1, they are suddenly in position to win the NFC East for the first time since 2011, and the numbers back up the surge. Even with injuries hitting key players, New York has stayed in the top half of the league in both offensive and defensive expected points added per play, which helps explain why the conversation around this team has shifted so quickly.
John Harbaughs group has also changed the math in a division that looked like it would be fought over by the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. New Yorks playoff probability has climbed to 66 percent, a mark that would have sounded ambitious not long ago, but now feels like a fair reflection of how the Giants have been playing. The bigger question is no longer whether they belong in the mix, but how long they can keep forcing everyone else to treat them like a real contender. [Read more 🡒]