The New York Giants’ 3-1-1 record looks shiny on the surface, but a deeper statistical dive says the vibe around this team may be running a little hotter than the actual football.
That disconnect is showing up everywhere. ESPN had the Giants at No. 19 in its Week 5 power rankings, even after they moved to first place in the NFC East, and that was down from No. 17 a week earlier.
BBV’s Nick Falato had them 18th. The Athletic’s Josh Kendall and Chad Graff also slotted them at No. 19, while Austin Mock’s model was far harsher, dropping New York all the way to No.
There is one obvious reason the public perception has shifted. John Harbaugh’s arrival as head coach has clearly changed how Giants fans see the team, and it appears to have affected the players too, at least the ones he has not released or benched. The Giants also deserve credit for bouncing back after losing Jaxson Dart and getting drubbed by the Rams, then putting together a 2-0-1 stretch.
But the bigger question is whether that run is real or just smoke.
Using team and opponent performance metrics built around expected points added, the answer is not especially flattering. PFF’s traditional film-based grading system has the Giants 23rd overall, 25th on offense, 14th on defense and 4th on special teams. On the EPA chart that adjusts for opponent quality and weights recent results more heavily, New York comes off looking like one of the league’s worst teams.
Their wins have come against Tennessee and Arizona, two of the weaker clubs in the league, and they tied Washington, which was only a little better than they were. The win over Dallas stands out as the most meaningful result, though even that came against a Cowboys offense that was helped by what is described as the league’s worst defense. The loss to the Rams is less alarming because Los Angeles grades out as one of the top five teams on this chart, even without special teams included.
The Giants are also sitting right next to New Orleans in that defensive-offensive EPA space, which is not exactly a badge of honor.
There is some nuance, though. New York’s rushing game has been one of the league’s worst, which matches what Mock noted about the lack of explosive runs.
That could be about the backs, the line’s run blocking, or the run-game approach itself. The passing game has been more respectable.
Even with the Giants already on their second quarterback of the season, their aerial production is only slightly below league average, which is reasonable considering they have played in rain and sometimes wind for three straight weeks.
The schedule story is a little more complicated than the record suggests, too. The Giants have built this start against what many would call a soft slate, and tougher opponents are waiting, including San Francisco, Seattle and Jacksonville.
But the overall future outlook is not as daunting as it first appears. Based on how teams have actually played so far, New York’s upcoming opponents are not dramatically stronger than what it has already seen.
The defenses ahead look only somewhat better, and the offenses may even be a bit weaker. That leaves room to think the 3-1-1 start can hold up.
One team that does not have that luxury is the Chargers. They are 0-5, and the right-side schedule view shows them with the toughest future slate in the NFL.
There are also a couple of areas where the Giants are thriving in ways that usually fly under the radar. On fourth down, they are elite.
New York and Cincinnati lead the league in combined EPA gained on fourth down on offense and defense, and the Giants’ defense has been especially strong in those moments, trailing only the Bengals. The special teams numbers are even more interesting given Harbaugh’s background.
The Giants are No. 1 in EPA on punts and top 10 on kickoffs, though they are slightly negative on field goals after Dominic Zvada’s rough outing in Washington.
So where does that leave them? The statistical case says the skepticism around the Giants’ record is justified.
They do not profile like a top-tier team right now. But there is still a path here.
If the rushing attack improves, if the fourth-down success holds, and if the special teams stay steady after last Sunday’s field goal mess, the Giants can keep this thing moving. The passing game may ultimately decide how far they can go, especially if Jameis Winston cuts down the turnovers and opens up the deep ball, and if Matt Nagy leans into it more than he has so far.
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