Daniel Jones has a way of keeping teams interested just long enough to make the bill hurt later.
That’s the lesson Indianapolis is starting to relearn. The Colts quarterback, who once wore out his welcome with the Giants, has now given the same franchise-slow-burn experience to a second team after another year that started with promise and now looks a lot less convincing. Through Week 4 of 2026, Jones has been one of the league’s least efficient passers, and the numbers are not subtle.
Among 41 quarterbacks with at least 35 dropbacks, Jones sits 37th in yards per attempt at 5.71, 33rd in passer rating at 73.9, 28th in adjusted completion percentage at 73.9 and 28th in turnover-worthy throw rate at 4.5 percent.
That’s the kind of profile that has teams staring at the same uncomfortable question: how did this happen again?
The answer, at least in Jones’ case, has become familiar. His best stretches have tended to line up with expiring money.
He pulled off the kind of season in 2022 that got the Giants to buy in after a shocking Wild Card upset, then cashed in. Last offseason, he landed with the Colts on a prove-it deal and once again turned that into a bigger payday after an outlier season.
And once the price climbs into the $40-plus million range, the production tends to drop off.
New York already lived through that cycle. Indianapolis may be next.
The Colts had the chance to walk away after a pleasantly surprising season, just as the Giants once did, and instead chose to double down. Now they’re staring at the same messy aftermath.
The Colts did at least build in some protection when they signed Jones to the two-year pact "worth up to" $100 in March, giving themselves a possible exit after this season. That flexibility could matter if they decide the best move is to reset at quarterback in 2027.
Still, there’s a wrinkle here that can’t be ignored. Jones is working his way back to full strength from a torn Achilles tendon suffered last December, which makes this a more complicated evaluation than a simple box-score verdict. He’s not just underperforming; he’s also less than a year removed from a major injury.
That leaves Indianapolis in a tough spot. The case for moving on is obvious.
So is the possibility that the Colts give him another chance because there isn’t a clear alternative waiting in the wings. Either way, Jones’ future with the franchise looms large over what comes next.
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Jayden Daniels Brings A Risk Washington Cant Ignore Against Giants
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