Next Sunday’s matchup between the Giants and Raiders in Las Vegas might not have playoff implications, but make no mistake - it could shape the top of the 2026 NFL Draft in a big way.
Both teams come into Week 17 at 2-13, riding nine-game losing streaks. No other team in the league has fewer than three wins. So yes, this game is less about bragging rights and more about draft positioning - specifically, the No. 1 overall pick.
Right now, the Giants hold that top spot thanks to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. But if they lose to the Raiders on Sunday, that tiebreaker won’t even matter. They’d be the only two-win team heading into Week 18, putting them in the driver’s seat for the first overall selection.
And that’s where things get interesting.
If the Giants do lock up that No. 1 pick, the question becomes: do they keep it - or flip it to a quarterback-needy team like the Jets?
It’s a fair question, and one that will loom large in the coming weeks, regardless of what happens with general manager Joe Schoen, whose seat is undeniably hot after a brutal 3-24 stretch dating back to last October.
Looking at the draft landscape, six teams currently sit with three wins or fewer: the Giants, Raiders, Browns, Jets, Titans, and Cardinals. Of that group, the Raiders, Browns, Jets, and Cardinals are all in the market for a long-term quarterback solution.
The problem? This isn’t shaping up to be a loaded quarterback class.
According to Pro Football Focus, only two quarterbacks crack the top 56 overall prospects: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore. They’re slotted fifth and sixth, respectively - solid talents, but not the kind of sure-thing prospects that front offices dream about.
Still, that won’t stop desperate teams from making aggressive moves to land a potential franchise quarterback. If the Giants end up with the No. 1 pick, they’ll be holding a golden ticket - and the Jets might be first in line.
The Jets, thanks to a midseason fire sale, are loaded with draft capital. They’ve got an extra first-round pick in 2026, two second-rounders that year, and three first-rounders in 2027. That’s eight picks in the first two rounds over the next two drafts - and more than enough ammo to make a serious play for the top spot.
If the Jets are sitting at No. 4 - or even lower - they could still offer the Giants a package too good to refuse. Of course, if the Raiders end up with the No. 1 pick, they’ll likely just take a quarterback themselves and end the conversation there.
But if it’s the Giants on the clock, things get complicated.
They’ve got holes all over the roster, and a treasure chest of premium picks could go a long way in speeding up the rebuild. Especially if they believe in Jaxson Dart, who’s had a solid - if not spectacular - rookie season. He’s shown enough flashes to make the front office think he could be the guy, but he’s not yet the kind of player you build your entire future around without hesitation.
So the logic of a trade-down makes sense. Load up on picks, build around Dart, and address the many needs across both sides of the ball.
But here’s where it gets tricky: would co-owner John Mara actually greenlight a trade with the Jets?
This isn’t just any team. This is the crosstown rival, the team that’s been searching for a franchise quarterback for decades. If the Giants hand them the No. 1 pick - and the Jets turn it into their long-awaited answer under center - Mara’s name would be tied to that decision forever.
Now, if Dart blossoms into a star and leads the Giants back to relevance, that risk becomes a footnote. But if the Jets land a game-changer and the Giants stay stuck in neutral, it becomes a legacy-defining decision - and not in a good way.
That said, the temptation will be real. Especially if multiple teams - the Jets, Browns, Cardinals - get into a bidding war for the top pick. That kind of competition could drive up the price and give the Giants a chance to reset their roster in a big way.
But first, there’s the matter of Sunday’s game in Vegas.
The Raiders have looked like the league’s worst team for most of the season - though they did show some signs of life last weekend in Houston. Meanwhile, the Giants have dropped 39 of their last 50 games since their 2022 wild-card playoff win. So yes, another loss is very much in play.
And if that happens, the Giants will be staring at the No. 1 pick - and one of the biggest decisions in franchise history.