The Giants get their season started under the lights Sunday night at MetLife Stadium, and the first test is a brutal one: Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, who come in as three-point favorites with the over/under sitting at 48.5 points.
For New York, this is more than just an opener. It’s a chance to flip a script that has been ugly for years.
Prescott has owned the matchup, going 14-3 against the Giants with 4,346 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, just nine interceptions, and a 101.5 passer rating. Dallas had rattled off 13 straight wins over New York before last season’s Week 18 meeting, a 34-17 Cowboys win in which Prescott and the starters only played the first half.
Now the Giants are trying to change that story with John Harbaugh on the sideline and a defense that has been reshaped. Both teams moved on from their defensive coordinators and added key pieces on that side of the ball, which should give this one a physical feel right away.
One significant break for New York: Dallas starting offensive lineman Tyler Smith had thumb surgery Tuesday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. That pushes T.J. Bass into the lineup next to Tyler Guyton at left tackle and center Cooper Beebe, and it gives Dennard Wilson’s defense a clearer target to attack.
That matters because Dallas still wants to lean on the run. Brian Schottenheimer will probably try to establish it early, even on the road, and the Cowboys averaged 4.8 yards per carry in their two games against the Giants last season on 58 total carries. New York has to be firm on early downs and force longer third downs, where Wilson can start dialing up pressure looks.
That’s where the Giants can get creative. Expect the kind of pressure manipulation that wastes blockers and creates confusion, with simulated pressure, creepers, and plenty of slants and twists up front. The middle of the field also looks stronger for New York with Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese in the mix, and that could help close down the quick game and create trap opportunities with robber coverage from Jevon Holland, Tyler Nubin, or Ar’Darius Washington.
Dallas, though, has answers. The Cowboys can try to blunt the rush with play-action bootlegs and quick throws to the flat out of 3x1 sets, keeping the ball away from the middle of the field early except on backside reads. CeeDee Lamb should see plenty of work in the quick game, and George Pickens figures to get multiple shots in one-on-one situations against the Giants’ corners.
That’s the balancing act for New York. The pass rush, featuring Abdul Carter, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and the rest of the group, can’t be allowed to get comfortable. Dallas can help itself by getting the ball out quickly, staying efficient on early downs, and moving methodically down the field to put points on the board.
For the Giants, the basics have to be clean. They need to hold their gaps against the run, tackle immediately on short throws, and stay disciplined against Lamb and Pickens.
As the game moves into zone coverage, New York also has to keep depth over the middle to take away post and dig routes from Dallas’ passing game. Wilson will need to vary his pressure decisions, because Prescott is exactly the kind of quarterback who sees the picture, adjusts, and punishes mistakes.
The Giants may also try to work the second level into their four-man pressure looks, especially when targeting Bass.
Schottenheimer has plenty of ways to stress the defense by moving Lamb and Pickens around, forcing either mismatches or coverage tells. That puts even more pressure on the Giants’ cornerbacks to stay disciplined snap after snap.
New York is a three-point underdog at home, but it does have a shot. If the Giants can slow Javonte Williams, win some battles on the outside, and generate pressure on Prescott in obvious passing situations, they can put themselves in position to steal a divisional win in Harbaugh’s first regular-season game as Giants coach. It won’t be easy, but Week 1 should tell us a lot about what this version of the Giants can really be.
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