The Giants get Washington again on Thursday night, and the matchup comes with a familiar edge after the teams played to a 27-27 tie in Week 5. New York enters at 5-2-1, Washington at 2-5-1, and the Giants are favored by 1.5 points with the Over/Under sitting at 42.5.
That first meeting left both sides with plenty to regret. Cam Skattebo’s fumble helped turn the game, and Washington’s final ten seconds of overtime became the kind of collapse that lingers.
Now the Giants are back home on a short week, with J.J. McCarthy starting at quarterback and New York sitting atop the NFC East.
They’re also trying to stack a third straight win for the first time this season.
Washington’s offense has been hard to pin down all year. The Commanders rank 20th in total offense, 22nd in passing offense, and 11th in rushing offense.
They average 21.5 points per game, which ranks 21st in the league. They’ve shown flashes - beating Seattle in Week 3 and making their Week 6 loss in San Francisco interesting in the second half - but the overall picture still lacks a clear identity.
The loss of Terry McLaurin three weeks ago has only made things murkier. The run game hasn’t found steady footing either, even after Jacory Crosky-Merrit’s early 33-yard touchdown against the Giants in Week 5. Crosky-Merrit is on I.R., and the ground attack hasn’t really taken off with Richaad White and Austin Ekeler.
Antonio Williams has become the rookie receiver to watch. He has 26 catches for 284 yards, and he has led the Commanders in snap share since McLaurin went down. Still, he hasn’t fully taken over yet, even if a breakout game feels possible.
Stefon Diggs has been the most productive receiver on the roster. He’s playing 60-65% of the snaps and leads Washington in receiving yards with 30 catches on 49 targets for 303 yards and a team-high five touchdown receptions. Treylon Burks has been playing through injury, while Luke McCaffrey is mainly contributing on special teams and doesn’t always get offensive snaps.
There are also signs Washington may lean on other pieces more heavily. Van Jefferson played 58% of the snaps against the Rams in Week 9 and caught five of seven targets for 58 yards and a touchdown.
He looked comfortable, and Washington went to him in key spots. Tight end Chig Okonkwo was also involved early and often against New York, and more usage in Week 10 is expected.
Ben Sinnott and John Bates are the next two tight ends on the depth chart.
Up front, Washington’s line is Brandon Coleman, Chris Paul, Lucas Patrick, Sam Cosmi, and Chris Conerly Jr. from left to right.
For the Giants, the blueprint is clear: keep attacking. Dennard Wilson’s defense came after Jayden Daniels in the first meeting and forced four three-and-outs.
New York blitzed on 62% of Daniels’ dropbacks and generated a 40.5% quick pressure rate, a 99th percentile performance. The Giants sent pressure on 23 dropbacks and got quick pressure on 12 of them.
Dru Phillips was especially disruptive, producing five quick pressures on seven pass-rush snaps as a blitzer.
New York also leaned on Cover-0 at key moments late in that game. Washington offensive coordinator David Blough should have answers ready this time, and the Giants will need to keep showing pressure while adjusting if the Commanders start solving it. The Giants out-coached a young coordinator in Week 5, but they can’t assume the same script will work forever.
The first matchup wasn’t clean for New York, either. Washington opened with a 33-yard touchdown, but the Giants have tightened up against the run over their last two games.
Better discipline up front and sharper angles from the safeties in the alley can help them keep Washington’s rushing offense in check. Jason Pinnock and Ar’Darius Washington have both been solid in those roles.
Blough’s offense used simple concepts to attack New York’s man coverage the first time around, especially half-field curl/flat to slant/flat reads and stack or bunch looks on third-and-short to create rubs and picks. The Giants will need to stay sharp in space and communicate well if they’re passing routes off to one another, because pick/wheel and post/wheel concepts showed up several times in Week 5.
When Washington condenses formations, expect the Giants to crowd the line and bring defensive backs on five-man pressure looks. Fire-Zone blitzes should be part of the plan, along with interior matchups for Arvell Reese and Micah McFadden. Reese against a running back in protection on third-and-long is a matchup New York should want to keep hunting.
The other major issue is Daniels’ legs. He can extend plays and slip away from defenders, which makes him tough to corral.
Wilson used rush-spies to keep that in check, forcing linemen to block while still leaving enough eyes on the quarterback. Arvell Reese’s second sack came off one of those looks.
New York should keep sending six at the snap, then dropping two into underneath coverage a half-second later. Wilson has mixed defensive linemen and linebackers into the rush all season, and those underneath zones can help bottle up the quarterback. The Giants can’t let high-side rushers abandon their responsibilities without a spy when they’re in man coverage.
The bigger picture is simple enough: the Giants defense has been playing like a top-10 unit, and the young talent up front is starting to show up. Daniels is a tough problem, but not an unsolvable one. New York should make Washington uncomfortable and come away with a 20-13 win.
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