It took a little more than half a season, but the New York Giants are finally getting treated like a real NFC threat.
At 5-2-1, John Harbaugh’s team is now the clear favorite to win the NFC East for the first time since 2011. For a while, the betting markets didn’t seem nearly as impressed as the record suggested, especially with the Dallas Cowboys hanging around. That’s changed now, and the latest playoff probabilities show the gap opening up in a hurry.
Here’s where the NFC stands by playoff odds through Week 9:
- San Franciso 49ers - 94 percent, 7-1
- Chicago Bears - 84 percent, 7-2
- Detroit Lions - 83 percent, 6-2
- Minnesota Vikings - 74 percent, 6-2
- New York Giants - 66 percent, 5-2-1
- Green Bay Packers - 62 percent, 6-3
- Seattle Seahawks - 49 percent, 5-4
- Los Angeles Rams - 47 percent, 5-4
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 35 percent, 3-6
- Carolina Panthers - 31 percent, 3-5
- Dallas Cowboys - 28 percent, 4-5
- New Orleans Saints - 19 percent, 3-5
- Atlanta Falcons - 18 percent, 3-6
- Washington Commanders - 11 percent, 2-5-1
- Philadelphia Eagles - 1 percent, 2-7
- Arizona Cardinals - Less than 1 percent, 3-6
The Cowboys were still being slotted as the division leaders as recently as Week 7, even after beating a zombie Philadelphia Eagles squad to move to 3-4. That was enough for them to become the chalk pick then. But New York’s statement win over the Houston Texans pushed the Giants to 4-2-1, and the picture has shifted fast.
Now the Giants are no longer grouped with the Cowboys, Eagles and Commanders. They’re sitting among teams with legitimate postseason buzz, with the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the same neighborhood. That’s a different kind of company, and the numbers reflect it.
The underlying performance backs it up too. New York ranks 14th in offensive expected points added per play and 11th on defense, which puts the Giants in the top half of the league on both sides of the ball.
They might not look like a typical contender, but the results since Sept. 27 say otherwise. During that stretch, only the Packers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers have one loss or fewer in the NFC.
What makes this run stand out is how the Giants have kept rolling without their franchise quarterback, star pass rusher and stalwart linebacker, all of whom are done for the year because of injuries. The production has come from across the roster, with some of it expected and some of it coming from places not many saw coming.
After years of frustration, with only a couple of outlier seasons mixed in, the Giants are suddenly looking like a team with real footing. The projections are catching up to what they’ve put on the field, and for once, the respect is showing up right on time.
In Other News...
Giants Face A Brutal MetLife Problem Before Commanders Showdown
Thursday night brings an NFC East meeting at MetLife Stadium, and the setup is about as unfriendly as it gets for a November prime-time game. The Giants will host the Commanders under cold, rainy conditions, with forecasts calling for significant rainfall and wind gusts that could make every snap a little messier than usual. It is the kind of weather that tends to strip away the polish and turn a divisional game into a survival test.
For the Giants, that adds another layer to a matchup already carrying some edge because of Washingtons road struggles. A slick field and steady wind can push both teams toward a lower-scoring script, and it also raises the risk of the kind of incidental injuries that often come with sloppy footing and crowded traffic. In a game like this, execution matters even more, and whoever handles the conditions better may end up controlling a matchup that already looked like it could be decided by the smallest of margins. [Read more 🡒]
Giants Face A J.J. McCarthy Dilemma They Can't Ignore
The Giants have already made their move on J.J. McCarthy, and the trade has quickly become one of the more important decisions of their season. Acquired from the Vikings for a 2027 fifth-round pick, McCarthy has stepped into the starting job and helped fuel recent wins, giving New York a steadier look at quarterback as the playoff race tightens.
Now the challenge is less about what he can do and more about how much the Giants should ask him to do. McCarthy is still working through a hip injury he picked up against the Eagles, and the concern inside the building is obvious: keep him upright, keep him available, and avoid exposing him to unnecessary punishment. That has put a spotlight on his usage, especially the designed quarterback runs that can add stress to a body the Giants need healthy for the stretch run. [Read more 🡒]
Cam Skattebo Now Carries Pressure Giants Could Not Avoid
The Giants spent the trade deadline trying to make a move that would have changed the shape of their offense, pursuing help such as Jeffery Simmons, Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson before coming up empty. Instead, they stayed put and head into the stretch run with Cam Skattebo still positioned as the primary running back, a role that has taken on added weight with Tyrone Tracy Jr. on injured reserve and Devin Singletary also in the mix.
So the pressure shifts back to the rookie and the offense around him, with New York needing him to hold up in the games ahead while the front office looks ahead to possible offseason changes. For a team that clearly explored bigger swings before the deadline, Skattebo now sits at the center of a backfield plan that could shape how the Giants evaluate both their present and their future. [Read more 🡒]