Michael Penix Jr. changed the conversation around Atlanta in a hurry.
After a rough opening two games, the Falcons’ quarterback made his first start since last year’s knee injury count on Thursday night, and Atlanta walked out with a 35-14 upset over the Green Bay Packers. Penix didn’t start clean - he threw an early interception - but he settled in and finished 18-of-25 for 256 yards, a touchdown and that pick.
Now the Falcons get another big stage in Week 4, heading to New Orleans for an NFC South meeting with the Saints. Both teams are 1-2, and with the Lions vs. Panthers result on Sunday night still in play, the winner of this one could be sitting alone at the top of the division after four weeks.
The biggest reason for optimism in Atlanta is obvious: the quarterback spot looks functional again. Penix’s presence gave the Falcons’ offense a different feel against Green Bay, with Bijan Robinson and Drake London helping drive a unit that looked far more dangerous once the rookie found his rhythm. If that level holds, Atlanta suddenly has a real path to the NFC South crown and a chance to end its playoff drought.
The defense is doing its part, too. Atlanta enters this matchup ranked eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate, numbers that back up what the eye test says about how tough this group has been. That side of the ball gives the Falcons a strong floor while the offense continues to come together.
New Orleans, meanwhile, looks more ordinary on the numbers. The Saints sit in the middle of the pack at 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play, which is why this matchup feels so winnable for Atlanta even away from home.
The betting angle follows the same logic. The case here is for the Falcons to win outright as underdogs, and the belief is that by Monday night, the NFC South will be going through Atlanta.
In Other News...
Saints Suddenly Have A Backfield Problem They Can't Ignore
Travis Etiennes injury in Week 3 has left the Saints looking a lot thinner in the backfield than they were just a few days ago. With the run game already leaning on Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller as backup options, New Orleans suddenly has to sort through a position group that no longer looks as dependable or as explosive as it did when Etienne was available.
The Saints have already moved on from other running backs, which makes the depth issue even harder to ignore. If they want to steady the offense, they may need to look beyond the current room and consider outside help, with names like Zamir White or other free agents now part of the conversation as New Orleans tries to find some stability on the ground. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Just Exposed A Defensive Problem They Cant Ignore
Tyler Shough did enough on offense to give New Orleans a real chance Sunday, throwing four touchdown passes in the Saints' 35-27 loss to Las Vegas. Even with that kind of production under center, the result still turned on what happened the other way, where the Saints struggled to handle Brock Bowers and the Raiders' passing game.
Bowers, the rookie tight end, kept finding soft spots and matchup advantages against New Orleans, averaging nearly 12 yards per catch while helping tilt the game in Las Vegas' favor. The way Kubiak chose to start Bowers ended up mattering in a major way, and it left the Saints with a defensive issue they cannot afford to let linger. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Backfield Suddenly Has A New Problem Ahead Of Vikings Game
The Saints backfield took another hit when Travis Etienne Jr. left the game against the Raiders with a hamstring injury, adding to a running back picture that has already been unsettled. It comes at a rough time for New Orleans, which has leaned on depth and flexibility at the position while trying to keep the offense moving through the early part of the season.
Minnesota made the situation even more interesting by signing former Saints backs Devin Neal and Audric Estime to its practice squad after both were released by New Orleans because of injuries. With the Vikings set to visit in Week 5, there is at least a chance the Saints could be looking across the field at two familiar names, even as they wait to find out how serious Etiennes setback turns out to be. [Read more 🡒]