The New Orleans Saints are making bold moves to bolster their roster as Tyler Shough heads into his second season. With an eye on strengthening their offensive line and backfield, the Saints have signed David Edwards, formerly of the Buffalo Bills, to take over as left guard. But the real head-turner is the addition of Travis Etienne Jr. to their running back lineup.
Now, while this move might have Saints fans buzzing with excitement, it's worth taking a closer look at what history tells us about such signings. According to a study by ESPN's Bill Barnwell, the success rate for running back free agents between 2013 and 2022 is a mere 10%. That's a tough pill to swallow for any team banking on a free agent to make a significant impact.
Barnwell points out that this low success rate isn't just a fluke; it's a reflection of the timing and nature of the position. Despite a few recent successes, like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry making waves after changing teams in 2024, the odds haven't been kind to running backs in free agency.
Comparing Etienne to Barkley and Henry, it's clear that while Etienne is talented, he may not have the same superstar potential that those two brought to the table before their big moves. This puts the Saints in a precarious position, as they're banking on Etienne to defy the odds and deliver.
The Saints' decision to bring in Etienne is undoubtedly a gamble. History suggests caution, especially given the 10-year span Barnwell analyzed, where running back signings struggled to pan out.
However, if Etienne can rise above the statistics, he could become a key piece in New Orleans' offensive puzzle. For now, it's a waiting game to see if this gamble pays off.