The Browns and Saints meet in New Orleans on Sunday afternoon with both teams trying to steady themselves after recent setbacks. Cleveland’s two-game winning streak ended in Pittsburgh last week, but the Browns still sit at 6-2. New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a 16-10 home loss to the Steelers before its bye and enters Week 9 at 2-5 overall, including 0-4 at home.
The betting market has barely budged on this one. New Orleans opened as a 2.5-point favorite at -115 and is now laying 3 points at -112. The total has also dipped slightly, moving from 43.5 to 42.5.
SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan backed the Saints in his Road to 272 Bets column, pointing to a glaring matchup problem for Cleveland. “The Saints have the worst run defense in the league, ranking last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate.
That makes them extremely susceptible anytime they face a team that can effectively run the football. Fortunately for them, Cleveland is one of the worst rushing offenses in football, ranking 27th in rush EPA.
Since the Browns can't take advantage of the Saints' biggest weakness, it's going to be a tough game for them on the road against a New Orleans team that's fresh off a BYE. I'll take the Saints in this one.”
That logic makes sense, and the Browns’ record deserves a closer look. They’re 6-2, but several of those wins have been tight: four came by exactly three points, and another was a four-point decision. In other words, the margin for error has been thin.
New Orleans is still searching for its first home win, but the bye week gives it a chance to reset, and the Saints remain in the mix in a weak NFC South.
In Other News...
Saints Run Defense Has A Problem They Cant Ignore Inside
Bo Davis has a clear standard in mind for his defensive tackles, and it is the kind of benchmark that tells you exactly where the Saints want their run defense to live. The New Orleans defensive line coach wants that group holding opponents to 3.2 yards per carry, a level that would sit at the top of the league, but the reality has been far different so far. New Orleans is giving up 4.8 yards per carry, a number that leaves the defense near the bottom of the NFL and has put the interior of the line under a brighter spotlight.
Injuries and uneven play from key tackles have fed into the problem, and it is one the Saints cannot simply hope away as the season moves on. Defensive coordinator Brandon Staley and players have both acknowledged the need for better play and more competition at the position, which makes the coming weeks important for a unit that has to tighten up inside if the defense is going to settle in. [Read more 🡒]
Falcons Put James Pearce Jr. In A Role Fans Have Wanted
The Saints latest staff shakeup came before Week 9, when they moved on from run game coordinator T.J. Paganetti in a decision head coach Kellen Moore said was meant to improve workflow. It was the kind of midseason adjustment that usually says as much about the operation behind the scenes as it does about the play on the field, and guard David Edwards acknowledged the offensive line had a role in how the change came about.
For a team still trying to settle into the right rhythm, the move adds another layer of pressure on an offense that has already had to sort through its share of issues. New Orleans now has to see whether the change can sharpen the ground game and clean up the details up front, because the margin for error keeps shrinking as the season moves deeper into November. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Face A Cesar Ruiz Decision That Could Reshape Their Line
Cesar Ruiz has become one of the more interesting names on the Saints roster as the team weighs whether to keep its interior line intact or use his value to address other needs. Any move involving Ruiz would ripple beyond New Orleans, because he has been a steady piece up front and the Saints would have to sort out the right side of the line without much margin for error.
New England has emerged as a possible fit, with the Patriots dealing with injuries and searching for help at guard as they try to keep their offense on schedule and their quarterback protected. For the Saints, the decision is just as much about what comes next as what they might get back, since moving Ruiz would open the door for Jeremiah Wright to be tested in a more prominent role. [Read more 🡒]