The Saints walked into the bye week at 2-5, and the numbers tell a pretty clear story about how they got there. New Orleans had reasons to feel good early, especially after pushing Detroit to overtime in Week 1 and then beating the Ravens on the road in Week 2.
Since that point, though, the season has tilted the other way. The Saints are 1-4 since that Ravens win, and even their lone victory in that stretch came with a huge scare, as they nearly coughed up a 24-point lead in the final nine minutes against the Giants.
There are bright spots in the mess. Tyler Shough has given the Saints the kind of quarterback play they were hoping for, and the top-end talent on the roster has mostly held up.
But too much of the rest has gone sideways. Eight numbers explain a lot of it.
34.3 is the passer rating Shough has posted on throws that travel 20 or more yards downfield. He’s completed 7 of 25 such attempts for 243 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
That’s roughly 40 points lower than his rating on those throws a year ago. The deep ball has been the rough edge in his game, even if he’s still been sharp in other areas.
On intermediate throws of 10-19 air yards, his 126.3 passer rating ranks fourth among qualified NFL passers. The Saints don’t need him to be perfect deep, but if that part starts clicking, the offense has another level to reach.
32.7% is the share of New Orleans’ rushing attempts that have gone for 1 yard or less. The Saints have run it 171 times in seven games, and 56 of those carries have been stuffed for minimal gain, not counting a pair of 1-yard touchdowns.
Kendre Miller has been especially stuck in the mud, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. Of his 57 attempts, 20 have gone for 1 yard or less, and nine have lost yardage.
That lack of punch on the ground has bled into everything else on offense. Getting Travis Etienne back should help, but this is bigger than one player.
54.5% is how often New Orleans has faced third-and-7 or longer. That’s 54 of 99 third-down snaps, and only six teams have faced that kind of long-yardage burden more often. The Saints have actually done a decent job converting some of those spots - they’re 9 of 20 on third downs between 7 and 9 yards - but living in that range is no way to run an offense, especially one that has had protection issues.
2.55 seconds is the average time it takes opposing defenses to get pressure on Shough, according to NexGenStats. He’s been pressured on 106 of 288 drop-backs, which works out to a 35.8% pressure rate - not terrible by league standards.
The problem is how fast the heat is arriving. That 2.55-second mark is the seventh-fastest time to pressure allowed in the NFL.
+55.2 is the combined Expected Points Added from Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele. With Jordyn Tyson still not on the field, those two have carried the wide receiver room.
Olave is piling up catches and yards and is on pace to blow past last season’s career-best totals. Vele has fit neatly next to him, giving the Saints a bigger target who can help move the chains and work the low red zone.
Together, they’ve outproduced Bengals stars Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who sit at +54.2 EPA combined.
48 is the number of explosive plays the Saints have allowed, with 24 coming in the passing game and 24 in the run game. Explosive plays are defined as passes of 20-plus yards and runs of 10-plus yards, and New Orleans has given up more of them than any other team in the league.
That’s a sharp reversal from last season, when this defense was much better in that area. If the current pace holds, the Saints will finish with 116 explosive plays allowed, up from 96 a year ago.
7 is the sack total Chase Young took into the bye, leaving him half a sack behind Houston’s Will Anderson for the NFL lead. Young became the 13th player in Saints history to reach seven sacks through the team’s first seven games.
2-0, 0-5 is the simplest split of all. When the Saints have won the turnover battle, they’re unbeaten.
When they’ve lost it, they haven’t won once. Those giveaways have been costly in different ways: four straight fourth-quarter turnovers in the loss to Las Vegas after New Orleans led by 11, a turnover inside the Steelers’ 5-yard line in a six-point loss, a minus-2 turnover margin in the overtime loss to Detroit, and giveaways deep in Saints territory against the Vikings and Falcons while those games were still up for grabs.
In Other News...
Saints Have A Barion Brown Decision That Could Help This Offense
Barion Brown has already given the Saints a glimpse of why his role could grow beyond spot duty. In limited offensive snaps, he has flashed as a receiver while also making his presence felt on special teams, where he ranks among the leagues better kickoff returners and has helped New Orleans start drives in better field position. For an offense that can use any easy edge it can find, that kind of dual-purpose value is hard to ignore.
The challenge now is figuring out how much more Brown can handle on offense without losing what he brings in the return game. The Saints have seen enough from his explosiveness to keep circling back to the idea that a bigger workload could help their attack, but the real question is whether they are ready to make that move and see if his playmaking can travel with him into a larger role. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Fans Have A New Running Back Worth Watching Closely
Ahmad Hardy is finally on track to get back on the field, and for Saints fans keeping an eye on the future of the running game, that matters. The Missouri back was a highly productive player before the setback that wiped out his first eight weeks, and his return comes with the kind of upside that can make a roster suddenly look a little more interesting down the line.
For now, the expectation is that Hardy will be eased in rather than thrown right into a featured role, with Missouri planning to manage his touches as he works back into game shape. Even so, the idea of a productive runner gradually reclaiming his workload is enough to make him a name worth tracking closely, especially for a Saints team that could use more juice in the backfield whenever the next wave of help arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Trade Deadline Could Finally Unlock A Needed Secondary Shakeup
The Saints have spent enough time tinkering in the secondary that a deadline move would not come as a surprise, and Justin Reid has emerged as the name to watch. With New Orleans looking for ways to sharpen a defense that has leaned on a handful of moving pieces, the idea of shifting Jonas Sanker into a bigger safety role has gained traction as a cleaner fit for both the rookie and the unit around him.
Sanker has already been used in a variety of spots, but the sense here is that he may be better served back where he is most natural, patrolling the back end rather than being asked to wear too many hats. If the Saints do make that kind of adjustment, it could open the door for other changes around the secondary as well, including more flexibility for Quincy Riley and Martin Emerson as the staff tries to settle on the right combination. [Read more 🡒]