The NFL’s trip to Paris brings a Steelers team that keeps finding ways to win and a Saints squad trying to hold its own behind a second-year quarterback. Pittsburgh enters Week 7 at 4-2 after its comeback victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday, and oddsmakers now have the Steelers favored by 3.5 points as they chase a 5-2 start.
That line has already shifted since opening with Pittsburgh laying 2.5. The Steelers are also listed at -185 on the moneyline, and the market is clearly giving them the edge even with the game being played overseas. With the AFC North crowded - all four teams over .500 through six weeks - every win matters for Aaron Rodgers and company.
What gives Pittsburgh a real shot to cover is the same thing that has kept it afloat all season: defense. The Steelers rank sixth in EPA/Play on that side of the ball, and they’ve stayed in games even when the offense has been uneven. Rodgers, meanwhile, is only 30th among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in success rate, which is a concern against a Saints team that has shown it can score.
New Orleans is coming off a win over the New York Giants, and Tyler Shough has moved the ball well in his second NFL season. But the numbers still point to trouble.
The Saints’ defense ranks 27th in EPA/Play, and Shough sits 20th in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2026. New Orleans does have one good win, over Baltimore, but the rest of its results have been less convincing through six weeks.
The clearest matchup edge may be on the ground. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in rush EPA, and Jaylen Warren is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
That’s a bad draw for a Saints defense that is last in opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate while allowing 4.8 yards per rush. If Warren gets rolling, it could put New Orleans in a tough spot trying to keep up.
Pittsburgh’s defense also comes in with real teeth. It is top 10 in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate, and the Steelers just showed last week that they can drag a game into their preferred style. They shut down Tampa Bay in the second half and still won in overtime, even with Rodgers and the offense fighting through a rough day.
That’s why the pick here is Pittsburgh to win and cover in Paris. The Steelers may not pile up points, but they have enough on defense and enough in the run game to do what they need to do.
In Other News...
Saints Paris Matchup Just Got A New Wrinkle Before Kickoff
The Steelers trip to Paris hit a rough patch before they ever got to kickoff, with the team canceling its official fan watch party because of civil unrest and street protests in the city. The backdrop around this international showcase has gotten messy in a hurry, even as the regular-season matchup with the Saints at the Stade de France is still on track to be played as scheduled.
Pittsburgh also had its Friday morning practice wiped out by Storm Austen, which brought high winds and rain that made the stadium session a no-go. The adjustment leaves the Steelers working around the elements and the schedule rather than settling into a normal game-week routine, and for New Orleans it adds one more unusual wrinkle to a trip that was already going to feel anything but routine. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Kicking Situation Is Putting Kellen Moore In A Tough Spot
Daniel Carlsons latest game offered a brief reprieve in a kicking picture that has been shaky for most of the season. After missing multiple field goals and extra points in most games this year, he returned from missing the first two days of practice for personal reasons and then drilled two kicks from beyond 50 yards, giving the Saints at least some reason to stick with him for the moment.
Still, the spot remains unsettled because the early-season inconsistency has not disappeared from the conversation. New Orleans has not made a change yet, but the longer the misses linger, the more pressure falls on Kellen Moore to decide how long he can afford to wait before the kicking issue forces his hand. [Read more 🡒]
Saints Defense Could Get A Needed Boost Before Steelers Showdown
The Saints got a little healthier on defense this week as Kaden Elliss returned to limited practice after missing the past three games with a calf injury. His availability matters in a matchup like this, especially with Pittsburgh looming and New Orleans still trying to sort through a roster that has been hit by injuries on both sides of the ball.
Tyler Shough, Nathan Shepherd and Kool-Aid McKinstry were full participants despite their recent issues, which at least gives the Saints some encouraging signs heading into the week. But the injury report was not clean, either, with Alvin Kamara among the players limited and Cesar Ruiz dealing with a knee problem, leaving New Orleans with a few more questions to answer before Sunday. [Read more 🡒]