Brock Bowers is set to make his first appearance of the season, and that changes the defensive picture for the New Orleans Saints in a big way.
It’s not just that Bowers is the Las Vegas Raiders’ top receiving threat. His return forces the Saints to prepare for an offense they haven’t really seen from Klint Kubiak yet, which makes this matchup a little harder to game-plan than usual. The biggest unknown is how Kubiak will use Bowers now that he’s available.
There is at least a clue in Kubiak’s past. During his time with the Seattle Seahawks, he leaned on two-tight-end looks often enough to give New Orleans something to study.
Seattle used 12 personnel at the 11th highest rate in the league last year, and that was without a player on Bowers’ level. This season, the Raiders haven’t had him, so they haven’t featured that grouping much.
Instead, Kubiak has leaned heavily on two-running-back formations. That film is there for the Saints to study, but the real challenge is figuring out how Bowers changes the way Kubiak wants to operate once he’s back in the mix. Brandon Staley will have to read that on the fly and adjust as the game unfolds.
Michael Mayer also matters here. The Raiders’ 12 personnel becomes dangerous because both tight ends can hurt you, not just Bowers. But Bowers is the centerpiece, and the lack of tape on him in this system creates a fresh wrinkle for New Orleans.
The Saints may be forced to alter one of their own tendencies to handle it. They spend a lot of time in nickel, and the STAR spot is a major part of what they do. But when opponents line up in 12 personnel, they’ve mostly answered with their base defense.
That means Bowers’ return and a likely bump in 12 personnel could push the Saints away from their usual preferred look, or at least change how they defend those two-tight-end sets.
One factor that could make that easier: Bowers often lines up split out instead of attached to the line. It still counts as 12 personnel, but it doesn’t play as heavy as having both tight ends tight to the formation. If that continues, the Saints may not have to go as big as often.
Jonas Sanker looks like one of the better options to handle the job. He has the coverage ability to deal with Bowers in the slot and the physical traits to help against the run. That would still leave New Orleans giving up some size when Bowers and Mayer are both inline, but it may be the tradeoff they need to make as the game develops.
If the Saints decide to lean on base defense, then the linebackers - and probably Justin Reid - will have to absorb most of the work on Bowers. New Orleans has to be smart here, because Bowers has the kind of return that can flip the game open in a hurry.
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