The NFL’s own preview of the Saints points to a 2026 season with a wide range of outcomes, and that range says plenty about how uncertain New Orleans still is.
On Tuesday, the league’s official YouTube channel released its season forecast for the Saints and pegged the ceiling at 11-6. The floor, though, sits all the way down at 5-12. In the NFL’s telling, everything hinges on second-year quarterback Tyler Shough and whether he can take the next step.
The seven analysts who contributed to the predictions all had New Orleans finishing under .500. Three of them landed on 8-9, which was the highest record forecast in the group.
The league’s best-case path for the Saints starts rough. In the 11-6 projection, New Orleans opens 0-2 with a pair of road losses before ripping off seven straight wins beginning in Week 3. That run ends in Week 11 with a loss to the Chicago Bears.
From there, the Saints are projected to go 4-4 over their final eight games. That stretch includes sweeps of the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers, plus a split with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
There’s still plenty of uncertainty around Shough, and the NFL’s preview leaned into that. He has only a small sample size from 2025, which leaves plenty unanswered about how he’ll handle a bigger workload now that defenses have more film on him. Even so, New Orleans has clearly committed to building around him, investing heavily in the offense.
The Saints’ win total for 2026 is set at 7.5, which sits right in the middle of the debate.
That makes 2026 a huge year for the franchise’s direction. With a lighter strength of schedule, the Saints have a chance to push forward, but falling short would raise hard questions about Kellen Moore’s future as a head coach, Shough’s long-term outlook, and whether another rebuild is coming. The NFL and several of its analysts clearly think New Orleans has a real shot to answer those questions the right way.
In Other News...
Saints Backfield Suddenly Feels Like A Franchise Turning Point
The Saints have spent years trying to find a rushing identity that sticks, and this offseason they made a clear bet on Travis Etienne to help change that. New Orleans has not had a 1,000-yard rusher since Mark Ingram in 2017, a drought that has lingered long enough to become part of the franchises larger offensive frustration, and the hope now is that Etienne can give Kellen Moore a more reliable foundation to build around.
Etienne arrives with the kind of resume the Saints have been missing, including multiple 1,000-yard seasons and the burst to alter games with one carry. There is still a bigger roster question hanging over the backfield, though, and it is one that could shape how quickly this move pays off as New Orleans tries to climb out of its recent rushing struggles. [Read more 🡒]
Former Saints Lineman Is Suddenly On Verge Of A Much Bigger Role
Malcolm Roachs NFL path has been a steady climb since he arrived in 2020 as an undrafted free agent with the Saints, and that kind of persistence has a way of earning notice. He spent four seasons in New Orleans before moving on, and the production has ticked up along the way as hes carved out a bigger place for himself on a defensive line that values toughness and versatility.
Now Roach is again positioned for a meaningful step forward, with his current team viewing him as a strong bet to make the 53-man roster and possibly factor into the starting mix up front. For the Saints, it is another reminder of a player who developed into a useful pro after beginning his career in New Orleans, and for Roach it could mean the biggest role yet if the opportunity in front of him holds. [Read more 🡒]
Tyler Shoughs Next Step Could Define The Saints 2026 Offense
Tyler Shough is heading into a second NFL season that could say a lot about where the Saints offense is going next. New Orleans believes the young quarterback has already shown the kind of poise and leadership that can steady a huddle, and now he gets something every developing passer wants: continuity in the system, a clearer sense of what the staff wants, and a better chance to settle in without learning on the fly.
Kellen Moores offense is built around efficiency and balance, which is a natural fit for Shough, and the Saints have tried to give him a more workable environment around it. The group in front of him should be healthier, the supporting cast has been upgraded, and the expectation is that cleaner pockets and more play-action chances can help Shough take the next step, even if the biggest answer about his future still has to be earned on the field. [Read more 🡒]