The NFC South has been a rollercoaster this season, and with just a few weeks left, the chaos is only intensifying. Tampa Bay’s recent slide - back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Atlanta - has opened the door for Carolina to seize control of the division.
But hold on. The Saints have a chance to sweep the Panthers this weekend, and if they do, they’ll throw a serious wrench into Carolina’s playoff push - something the Bucs would be more than happy to see.
So how can New Orleans pull off another upset and derail the Panthers’ momentum? Let’s break it down.
Pre-Snap Motion: A Chess Match Before the Snap
One of the more intriguing tactical battles in this game will come before the ball is even snapped. The Saints have leaned heavily on pre-snap motion this season - using it on 61.5% of their offensive plays, the sixth-highest rate in the league. It’s a tool designed to create mismatches, confuse defenses, and give quarterbacks a clearer picture of coverage.
Carolina, however, has struggled mightily against motion. They rank 29th in the NFL in defensive EPA when facing motion (0.15), a clear vulnerability.
But here’s the twist: while the Saints use motion frequently, they haven’t exactly been lighting it up when they do - ranking 29th in offensive EPA on motion plays (-0.11). So it’s not just about quantity; it’s about quality.
This is where quarterback Tyler Shough becomes a potential x-factor. His ability to run zone-read concepts out of motion could put stress on Carolina’s front seven and give New Orleans a numbers edge in the box. If the Saints can use motion to manipulate Carolina’s linebackers and safeties, they’ll have a shot at creating the kind of schematic advantages that haven’t shown up on the stat sheet - yet.
Bringing the Heat: The Saints’ Blitz Blueprint
Defensively, New Orleans isn’t shy about bringing pressure. They blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the league (35.8%), and that aggression could be the key to disrupting Carolina’s offense. Bryce Young has shown flashes, but he’s still a young quarterback who’s struggled under heat.
Carolina hasn’t faced an overwhelming number of blitzes this year (29.6%, 18th), but when teams have brought pressure, the results haven’t been pretty. The Panthers rank 25th in EPA when blitzed (-0.14), and they’re even worse when pressured - 24th in the NFL with a dismal -0.55 EPA.
The challenge for New Orleans is turning their blitzes into actual pressure. Despite the high blitz rate, they’re only generating pressure on 27.5% of dropbacks.
That number needs to climb. If the Saints can speed up Young’s internal clock and force him into quick, off-schedule throws, they’ll have a real chance to control the tempo of this game.
Explosive Plays: Saints Must Find a Spark
Here’s where things get tricky for New Orleans. Offensively, they’ve struggled to generate big plays all season. They’re dead last in the league in explosive play rate (6.6%), and that lack of chunk yardage has made it tough to sustain drives or flip field position.
The good news? Their defense has been excellent at limiting explosive plays, ranking seventh in the NFL (8.7%). And Carolina isn’t exactly a fireworks show themselves - they come in at 24th in explosive play rate (8.9%).
Still, at some point, the Saints are going to need to find a spark. Whether it’s a deep shot off play action or a chunk run that breaks through the second level, they need to test Carolina vertically and horizontally.
Play action could be a weapon - even though they rank 30th in usage (18.3%) - but it only works if the run game is respected. That means the Saints have to establish something on the ground early to open up those opportunities.
The Bottom Line
This game is about matchups and execution. New Orleans has the tools to disrupt Carolina’s rhythm - motion to create confusion, blitzes to pressure Young, and a defense that doesn’t give up the big play. But they’ll need to be sharper on offense, especially when it comes to capitalizing on the schematic advantages they’re already trying to create.
For the Saints, this isn’t just about playing spoiler. It’s about showing that they can still punch above their weight in a division that’s wide open. And for Tampa Bay, they’ll be watching closely - because a Saints win could swing the NFC South race right back into chaos.