The New Orleans Saints are riding a modest but meaningful two-game win streak, while the New York Jets are already looking ahead to the offseason and, more importantly, the NFL Draft. On paper, these teams might seem close - similar records, both starting young quarterbacks - but the vibes couldn’t be more different.
One team is building momentum. The other is bracing for change.
The Saints are using this late-season stretch to get a closer look at rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who’s shown flashes of poise and playmaking when it matters most. Meanwhile, the Jets are onto their third quarterback of the 2025 season, handing the reins to Brady Cook, who’s now tasked with navigating a sputtering offense through a tough road matchup.
New Orleans will be without two promising young weapons - running back Devin Neal and wide receiver Devaughn Vele are both out. Even so, the Saints enter Sunday as 4.5-point home favorites. Here are three key matchups and storylines to keep an eye on.
1. Brady Cook’s Aggressiveness Could Challenge the Saints’ Secondary
It’s easy to look at the Jets’ passing stats and assume this is a dink-and-dunk offense. They rank fourth in the NFL in short throw rate at 71.5%, but that number is skewed by Justin Fields’ time under center earlier this season. Since then, Tyrod Taylor gave them more verticality, and now Brady Cook is showing he’s not afraid to stretch the field either.
Cook’s willingness to challenge defenses at all levels could be a sneaky X-factor. The Saints’ defense has been average when it comes to defending intermediate and deep throws - ranking 15th in defensive EPA against intermediate passes (0.41) and 16th against deep balls (-0.10). What’s more, they’ve faced the third-highest rate of deep throws in the league at 14.5%.
The Jets don’t exactly have burners on the outside, but don’t be surprised if Cook takes some calculated shots off play-action. If the Saints’ secondary gets caught flat-footed, Cook has the arm to make them pay.
2. Tyler Shough’s Late-Game Composure Is Becoming a Story
The Saints’ last two wins have come in thrilling fashion, and rookie QB Tyler Shough has been right in the middle of both. While the Saints rank just 25th in late-game offensive success rate at 41.2%, that number likely doesn’t reflect what Shough has brought to the table in recent weeks.
He’s shown a calmness under pressure that’s rare for a young quarterback, and he’s starting to earn trust in clutch situations. But he’ll face a real test this week.
The Jets’ defense, for all the team’s offensive struggles, has been one of the league’s toughest in crunch time. They rank seventh in late-game defensive success rate at 41.3%, and they’ve shown the ability to clamp down when it matters most.
If this one comes down to the final few possessions - and it might - Shough will need to continue his upward trend against a defense that doesn’t give much away late.
3. The 11 Personnel Chess Match
Both teams love to line up in 11 personnel - that’s one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers - and it shows in the numbers. The Saints use it on 68.9% of their offensive snaps, second-highest in the league. The Jets aren’t far behind at 67.1%, ranking fifth.
It’s a clear identity for both offenses, even if the execution hasn’t always matched the intent.
Defensively, neither team has been particularly strong against 11 personnel. The Saints rank 18th in defensive EPA when facing it (0.03), while the Jets are near the bottom at 28th (0.14). They’ve also each faced 11 personnel at similar rates - 51.4% for New Orleans, 49.5% for New York - landing them in the bottom third league-wide in that category.
So what does that mean? Expect a lot of familiar looks from both offenses - three-wide sets, quick reads, and spacing concepts - but the team that can actually do something with those alignments will have the edge. This might come down to which quarterback can find rhythm in a formation both defenses are used to seeing but haven’t consistently stopped.
Bottom Line:
The Saints are trending upward, testing out a potential future starter in Tyler Shough while maintaining a competitive edge.
The Jets, on the other hand, are in evaluation mode, seeing what they have in Brady Cook. But don’t let the broader narratives fool you - this game offers intriguing matchups, especially at quarterback.
If Shough continues to deliver late and Cook keeps pushing the ball downfield, we could be in for a more entertaining game than the records suggest.