The Miami Dolphins are heating up at just the right time - but now they’ll have to prove they can keep that fire burning in the cold.
With a win over the New Orleans Saints, Miami has now taken four of its last five games, clawing its way back from a rough 1-6 start. The momentum is real.
The defense is tightening up, the run game is clicking, and there’s a clear identity forming. But here’s the thing: if the Dolphins want to turn this late-season surge into a legitimate playoff push, they’ll have to overcome something that’s haunted them for years - and no, it’s not a divisional rival or a playoff curse.
It’s the weather.
Cold weather, to be exact.
Tua Tagovailoa is still searching for his first win in freezing conditions. He’s 0-7 in games where the temperature at kickoff dips below 46 degrees.
And for the Dolphins as a team, the track record is just as chilly - they haven’t won a game played in sub-40-degree temps since 2016. That’s not just a stat; it’s a storyline, and one that could define the rest of their season.
Take a look at what’s coming: Week 14, a road trip to face the New York Jets, where the forecast is already projecting temperatures in the 30s. The following week?
A visit to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, where snow could be in the mix. And to close out the regular season, a January showdown in Foxborough against the Patriots - a place where warm weather dreams go to die.
Head coach Mike McDaniel knows the narrative. He addressed it head-on last season after a cold-weather loss to the Packers, saying, “The naysayers, if you prove them right, they’ll be louder.
That’s part of the territory. You carry that until you do something about it.”
That message still holds weight. The only way to silence the doubts is to win in the cold.
Tua, for his part, hasn’t leaned into the storyline. When asked about it, he’s pointed more to the wind than the temperature itself.
“It’s more so the wind than anything else,” he said last year. And he’s not wrong - swirling gusts can disrupt timing, ball placement, and rhythm, especially in an offense that relies on precision.
But regardless of whether it’s the wind, the cold, or a combination of both, the results haven’t been there.
The silver lining? This version of the Dolphins might be better built to handle those elements.
On Sunday, rookie sensation De’Von Achane crossed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground - a major milestone, and a sign of how this offense has evolved. In each of the Dolphins’ four recent wins, the formula has been consistent: over 140 rushing yards and under 200 passing yards.
That’s not just game management - that’s smart, situational football. It’s the kind of blueprint that travels well, even into the cold.
A strong run game can take the pressure off Tua, limit the impact of the wind, and help control the clock. Add in a defense that’s starting to find its rhythm, and suddenly this team doesn’t look so weather-dependent. They look like a team that can grind out tough wins in tough environments.
But here’s the reality: if Miami can’t flip the script this Sunday against the Jets, the playoff dream could freeze over fast. The margin for error is razor-thin, and every game from here on out is a must-win.
The Dolphins have the talent. They’ve got the momentum.
Now they just need to prove they can win when it’s not 75 and sunny. Because if they want to keep playing in January, they’ll have to start winning in December - no matter what the thermometer says.