Detroit Lions' Playoff Picture: The Good, the Bad, and the Road Ahead
After a statement win over the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night, the Detroit Lions find themselves in a playoff race that’s as tight as it gets. The 44-30 victory didn’t just keep their postseason hopes alive-it gave them a shot of adrenaline heading into the final stretch.
But as with most things in the NFL this late in the season, the story is layered. There’s good news, there’s bad news, and there’s a whole lot of scoreboard-watching left to do.
The Good: Clarity in the Chaos
Let’s start with the upside. The Lions now have a clear path to the playoffs.
It’s not easy, but it’s straightforward: win out, and they’re in. At 8-5, Detroit controls enough of its own destiny to feel like a legitimate playoff contender.
That Thursday night win over Dallas was massive-not just because it bumped Detroit’s playoff odds to 54% (per NFL Next Gen Stats), but because it delivered a body blow to the Cowboys’ postseason hopes, dropping theirs to just 7%.
The Lions’ path is also helped by the current NFC North standings. The Packers, after beating the Bears on Sunday, now sit atop the division and are favored to win it.
That actually works in Detroit’s favor, since the Lions don’t hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay-but they do have a shot at getting one over Chicago in Week 18. If Detroit can finish strong and the Packers stumble twice, the division crown isn’t completely out of reach.
The Bad: A Slight Dip in the Numbers
Now, the less-than-ideal part. Despite the win over Dallas, the Lions’ playoff odds actually took a small hit after Sunday’s slate of games.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they dipped from 54% to 53%. The Athletic’s playoff simulator was less kind, dropping Detroit’s chances from 45% to 39%.
The reason? It wasn’t the Packers-Bears outcome, even though that game had major NFC North implications.
The real issue was that the Lions didn’t get the help they were hoping for elsewhere. Detroit needed losses from the Seahawks, Rams, and Buccaneers to boost their chances.
Only one of those came through-New Orleans beating Tampa Bay, which doesn’t move the needle much since one of Tampa or Carolina is going to win the NFC South regardless. Meanwhile, the Rams and Seahawks both notched key wins, solidifying their playoff positions and tightening the wild-card race.
NFC Playoff Standings Snapshot (Entering Monday of Week 14)
Here’s where things stand in the NFC playoff picture:
- Rams (10-3) - 99% playoff odds
- Packers (9-3-1) - 95%
- Eagles (8-4) - 96%
- Buccaneers (7-6) - 70%
- Seahawks (10-3) - 98%
- 49ers (9-4) - 94%
Bears (9-4) - 70%
- Lions (8-5) - 39%
- Panthers (7-6) - 31%
- Cowboys (6-6-1) - 7%
With the top seven teams making the playoffs, Detroit sits just outside the cut. But the gap isn’t insurmountable-especially with four games left and a couple of key tiebreakers still in play.
The NFC North Race: Still Open, Barely
The Lions’ chances to win the NFC North are slim, sitting at just 6% according to The Athletic’s model. But the division isn’t locked up yet. Here’s how the odds shake out:
- Packers - 68%
- Bears - 26%
- Lions - 6%
- Vikings - Less than 1%
For Detroit to pull off a division title, they’d need to win out and hope the Packers drop at least two of their final four games. That’s a tall order, but not impossible. And if it comes down to Week 18 against the Bears, that game could carry massive implications-not just for a playoff berth, but for the division itself.
What Happens If the Lions Slip?
Let’s say Detroit doesn’t run the table. If they go 11-6 instead of 12-5, there are still playoff paths available-but they get a lot more complicated. The most realistic scenario would involve finishing tied with or ahead of the Bears and owning the tiebreaker, which means that Week 18 matchup in Chicago becomes a must-win regardless.
There’s also a slim chance the Lions could sneak in via a wild-card tiebreaker with the Rams, but that hinges on Los Angeles losing at least three of its final four-including a head-to-head loss to Detroit this Sunday. That’s a long shot, especially with how well the Rams are playing.
The Lions might also be able to leapfrog the Seahawks or 49ers, but again, that would require either of those NFC West powers to stumble badly down the stretch. Bottom line: if Detroit loses even one of its last four, their playoff odds take a steep dive. Every game from here on out is essentially a must-win, even if the math doesn’t quite say so-yet.
The Road Ahead: Four Games to Decide It All
Here’s what’s left on the Lions’ schedule:
- Week 15: at Rams (Dec. 14, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox)
- Week 16: vs. Steelers (Dec. 21, 4:25 p.m.
ET, CBS)
- Week 17: at Vikings (Dec. 25, 4:30 p.m.
ET, Netflix)
- Week 18: at Bears (Jan.
3-4, TBD)
It’s a challenging slate, but not insurmountable. The Rams game is huge-not just for playoff implications, but for potential tiebreakers.
The Steelers and Vikings are beatable, though playing in Minnesota on Christmas Day won’t be easy. Then there’s that final showdown in Chicago, which could end up being one of the most meaningful games of the entire NFC playoff race.
What to Watch in Week 14
As the Lions prepare for their showdown in Los Angeles, here are five games this week that could impact their playoff picture:
- Lions at Rams - A win here is critical for Detroit’s playoff hopes and potential tiebreakers.
- **Seahawks vs.
Colts** - Detroit needs Seattle to stumble.
3. **49ers vs.
Titans** - Any slip from San Francisco helps the wild-card math.
4.
Bears vs. Browns - A Bears loss gives Detroit breathing room in the division and wild-card chase.
- Packers at Broncos - If Green Bay drops this one, the NFC North door creaks open just a bit wider.
The Lions have been playing with grit and resilience, and they’re peaking at just the right time. But there’s no margin for error now.
Every snap, every possession, every result across the NFC matters. The road to the playoffs is still open-but it’s going to take four more weeks of near-perfect football to walk through it.