With just four weeks left in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus-but it’s still a bit of a blur. No team has officially punched its ticket to the postseason yet, but that could change in Week 15.
The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Rams all have clinching scenarios on the table. For the rest of the league, it’s either full steam ahead toward a playoff push-or full dive into mock draft season.
Let’s break down where things stand, who’s still in the hunt, and which teams are already looking ahead to 2026. We’ll also dig into the updated playoff odds from BetMGM and spotlight the wild path the Kansas City Chiefs need to follow if they want to extend their season.
The State of the Playoff Race: A League Divided
Right now, 10 teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention. That leaves 22 still mathematically alive, though some are hanging on by a thread. The NFC has 11 teams still fighting for seven postseason spots, while the AFC has 12 in the mix.
What’s especially notable this year is the parity. A season ago at this point, four teams had already clinched.
This time? None.
That’s a testament to how competitive and unpredictable this season has been. And that unpredictability is keeping things interesting deep into December.
Playoff Odds Snapshot: Who’s In, Who’s Out, Who’s on the Bubble
Here’s how the oddsmakers at BetMGM are seeing the playoff race as of Dec. 10:
All but eliminated:
- Kansas City Chiefs: Despite sitting at 6-7, the Chiefs have just a 16% implied chance to make the playoffs (+525).
More on their situation below.
- Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots: All under 2% odds to sneak in.
- Dallas Cowboys: Sitting at 6-6-1, but oddsmakers give them only a 3.2% shot.
Firmly in the driver’s seat:
- Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks: Each with 99% implied odds or better.
- Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans: Also sitting comfortably with 95%+ chances.
On the bubble:
- Detroit Lions: Essentially a coin flip at -115 odds (53.5%).
- Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers: Both above 60% but far from locks.
- Indianapolis Colts: Still in it at 22.2%, but their road is getting bumpier.
The Chiefs’ Long Road to January
Let’s talk about Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs are 6-7.
Yes, their playoff odds are sitting at just 16%. But if you think Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going down quietly, think again.
Here’s the math on how they can still get in:
- Win out - That’s the starting point.
Kansas City has to run the table over the final four weeks. The schedule: vs.
Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders.
Not impossible, but no margin for error.
- Get help from the Colts - Indianapolis needs to drop at least two of its final four.
Their slate? At Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs.
Jaguars, at Texans. That’s a tough stretch, and the Colts are dealing with a quarterback situation that’s bordering on surreal-44-year-old Philip Rivers has been added to the practice squad after Daniel Jones went down with a season-ending Achilles injury.
- Chargers need to stumble - Los Angeles needs to lose at least three of its last four.
That includes matchups at Kansas City, at Dallas, vs. Houston, and at Denver.
The Chargers’ win over the Eagles on Monday night was a big boost, but their remaining schedule is no cakewalk.
One more wrinkle: if the Broncos lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed early, they could rest starters in Week 18 against the Chargers. That could be the break the Chiefs need.
Bottom line? It’s a long shot. But with Mahomes under center and Reid on the sideline, Kansas City still has a puncher’s chance.
AFC Playoff Picture: Crowded at the Top, Chaos in the Middle
Division Leaders:
- Denver Broncos (11-2) - AFC West
- New England Patriots (11-2) - AFC East
- Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) - AFC South
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) - AFC North
Wild Cards:
- Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
- Buffalo Bills (9-4)
- Houston Texans (8-5)
Still in the Hunt:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)
Eliminated:
- New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
The AFC is deep, and the wild card race is shaping up to be a fight to the finish. The Colts, Texans, and Chargers are all jockeying for position, while teams like the Ravens and Dolphins are hoping for a late-season surge.
NFC Playoff Picture: Rams and Seahawks Lead the Way
Division Leaders:
- Los Angeles Rams (10-3) - NFC West
- Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) - NFC North
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) - NFC East
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) - NFC South
Wild Cards:
- Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
- San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
- Chicago Bears (9-4)
Still in the Hunt:
- Detroit Lions (8-5)
- Carolina Panthers (7-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8)
Eliminated:
- New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Washington Commanders, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
The NFC is top-heavy with a few elite teams, but the wild card race is still wide open. The Bears, Lions, and Panthers are all in the mix, and every win (or loss) from here on out will have ripple effects across the standings.
Looking Ahead
As Week 15 kicks off, the playoff picture is still fluid-but not for long. A few teams can lock things up this weekend, while others are one loss away from officially shifting their focus to 2026.
Whether your team is fighting for a top seed or just clinging to hope, these next four weeks are going to be a wild ride. Buckle up.