10 Storylines to Watch as the NFL Playoff Race Heats Up in Week 14
December football is here, and with just five weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus-or chaos, depending on your team. Twenty teams are .500 or better heading into Week 14, and four divisions have three teams above that mark.
That’s not something we see often-just the fifth time it’s happened since 2002, according to NFL Research. The margin for error is razor thin, and every game matters from here on out.
Let’s dive into 10 key storylines to watch as Week 14 kicks off.
1. Derrick Henry Could Swing the AFC North Race
When the Ravens and Steelers met in last season’s Wild Card round, Derrick Henry looked like a man among boys-racking up 186 yards and two touchdowns. Fast-forward to this week, and Baltimore could use another heavy dose of King Henry.
Pittsburgh's run defense has been leaky all year, ranking 24th in ESPN’s run stop win rate metric. That’s not the kind of stat you want when trying to slow down one of the most physical backs in the league.
Add in Lamar Jackson’s recent struggles-he’s completed under 60% of his passes in four straight games-and it’s clear the Ravens need to lean on the ground game. If Henry gets rolling, Baltimore could take control of the AFC North.
2. Colts Facing a Gauntlet Down the Stretch
Indianapolis was flying high earlier this season, and Jonathan Taylor was back in MVP conversations. But the Colts have dropped three of their last four and now find themselves tied with Jacksonville atop the AFC South.
Here’s the kicker: Indy’s final five games are all against teams with winning records. That includes two matchups with the Jaguars.
The Colts still lead the league in scoring at 29.8 points per game, but they’ve failed to crack 24 points in back-to-back losses. If they want to stay in the playoff mix, they’ll need to rediscover their offensive rhythm-fast.
3. Are the Bears Legit? A Statement Game Awaits
No one saw this coming: the Chicago Bears sitting atop the NFC in December. Last week’s win felt like a defining moment for Ben Johnson’s squad, but now comes the real test-Green Bay at Lambeau Field.
The Bears haven’t beaten the Packers (outside of a meaningless Week 18 game last season) since 2018. But this year’s team is built differently.
Chicago leads the NFL in takeaways (26) and interceptions (17), with veteran safety Kevin Byard hauling in a league-best six picks. A win on the road against their biggest rival would send a clear message: the Bears aren’t just a feel-good story-they’re for real.
4. Chiefs Enter Must-Win Territory
At 6-6, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the outside looking in. They currently sit 10th in the AFC and have just a 34% chance to make the playoffs.
A loss this week? That number drops to 11%, per Next Gen Stats.
Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, but he’ll need to be at his absolute best against a stingy Houston defense. The Texans are allowing just 265.7 yards and 16.5 points per game-tops in the league in both categories.
Houston’s pass rush, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, ranks 10th in pass rush win rate. And with tackle Josh Simmons out on IR, Mahomes could be under fire all afternoon.
This is as close to a must-win as it gets for the defending champs.
5. Rookie QB Showdown: Cam Ward vs. Shedeur Sanders
The Titans and Browns might not be playoff contenders, but their matchup is worth watching for one reason: the rookie quarterbacks.
Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders will go head-to-head for the first time, and both are looking to prove they belong. Sanders, who slid to the fifth round despite first-round talent, has a chance to make his case as Cleveland’s long-term answer.
But he’ll have to do it against a Browns defense anchored by Myles Garrett, the NFL’s sack leader. If Sanders can outperform Ward and handle the heat, he may just plant his flag in Cleveland.
6. Don’t Count Out the Bengals Just Yet
Cincinnati’s playoff hopes are hanging by a thread-just a 3% chance to get in, according to Next Gen Stats. But if there’s a team that knows how to flip the script late in the season, it’s the Bengals.
Remember last year? They were 4-8 at this point and rattled off five straight wins to close the season.
They’ve already beaten Baltimore, and this week they get a shot at Buffalo. If Joe Burrow and company can pull off another upset, the rest of the AFC better take notice.
7. **J.J.
McCarthy’s Final Audition? **
J.J. McCarthy is back under center for Minnesota after clearing concussion protocol, but the rookie hasn’t had the smoothest ride. His 57.9 passer rating is the lowest among QBs with at least six starts.
With five games left, this could be McCarthy’s chance to show he deserves to be the Vikings’ guy moving forward. Whether he can seize that opportunity will be one of the more intriguing subplots to watch as Minnesota tries to stay in the playoff hunt.
8. How Effective Will Justin Herbert Be?
Justin Herbert is expected to play Monday night against the Eagles despite a fractured left hand. The Chargers have said he’ll suit up, but don’t expect him to take snaps under center.
The good news? Rookie running back Omarion Hampton could return, giving L.A. a much-needed boost in the run game.
The Bears just torched Philly for 281 rushing yards, and pairing Hampton with Kimani Vidal could give the Chargers a similar edge. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ passing game has been out of sync, and they’ll face a Chargers defense that ranks second against the pass.
It’s a fascinating matchup with plenty of layers.
9. Broncos Aim for 10 Straight Wins
Denver is quietly one of the hottest teams in football. The Broncos have won nine straight, and eight of those have come by just one score.
This week, they face the Raiders-a team they’ve already beaten during this streak. A win would push them to double-digit victories and further solidify their place in the playoff picture. Don’t look now, but the Broncos are becoming a serious problem for the rest of the AFC.
10. Patriots Rest Up with Playoff Push in Sight
The New England Patriots are on a Week 14 bye, and they’ve earned it. Winners of 10 straight, they currently hold the NFL’s longest active win streak.
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is in the MVP conversation, and Mike Vrabel is firmly in the Coach of the Year race. The Patriots are the AFC’s top seed heading into the final stretch, and this week’s break could be just what they need to gear up for a postseason run.
Bottom Line:
Week 14 is loaded with playoff implications, quarterback storylines, and statement opportunities.
Whether it’s a team trying to stay alive or a rookie trying to prove he belongs, every snap matters now. December football is here-and it’s not waiting for anyone.