Bucs vs. Panthers: NFC South Showdown Becomes a Two-Game Sprint to the Finish
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t strangers to late-season drama, but this year’s playoff push comes with an extra dose of tension. After a hot 6-2 start, Tampa has stumbled out of their bye week, dropping five of their last six to fall to 7-7. Now, with just two games left against the same opponent - the Carolina Panthers - the Bucs’ path to a fifth straight NFC South title is clear: beat Carolina at least once, and hope the math breaks their way.
It’s not the smoothest ride, but it’s still a road to the playoffs.
From Front-Runners to a Photo Finish
Tampa looked like the class of the NFC South through the first half of the season. But injuries and inconsistency have dragged them back into the pack.
The offense has slowly gotten healthier - Bucky Irving returned, Chris Godwin got back into rhythm, and Mike Evans rejoined the lineup last week - but quarterback Baker Mayfield has struggled to regain his early-season form. Combine that with a defense that’s been more leaky than lockdown, and the door has swung wide open for the Panthers.
Carolina, for their part, hasn’t exactly surged into contention. They’ve been treading water since October, alternating wins and losses and recently dropping a second game to a Saints team with just four wins. But at 7-7, they’re still very much alive - and, more importantly, they now control their own destiny.
The two teams haven’t met yet this season. That changes today in Charlotte, with the rematch set for the season finale in Tampa. Those two games will likely decide the division and, barring a total collapse from the Eagles, determine who grabs the NFC’s No. 4 seed.
It’s not often the NFL gives us a de facto two-game playoff series to close the season. But here we are.
Tiebreaker Territory: What Happens If They Split?
If the Bucs and Panthers each win one of their remaining two head-to-head matchups, the division title would come down to the NFL’s tiebreaker system - and it gets a little complicated from there.
Let’s break it down:
- Head-to-head: Still to be determined. They play twice in the final three weeks.
- Division record: Both teams are 2-2 in NFC South play.
- Common games: Slight edge to Tampa.
They beat Arizona (who beat Carolina) and Seattle (whom Carolina still has to face). Carolina beat Miami, who Tampa plays next week.
- Conference record: Carolina holds a slight edge at 5-4. Tampa is 5-5.
- Strength of victory: Slight advantage to Carolina. Their wins came against teams with a combined record of 45-51-2.
Tampa’s wins came against teams with a 45-53 record.
- Strength of schedule: Dead even.
Both teams’ opponents have a .517 win percentage.
- Points scored and allowed (NFC ranking): Tampa leads here - 8th in points scored, 12th in points allowed (combined NFC rank of 20).
Carolina sits at 15th and 7th (rank of 22).
- Points scored and allowed (overall NFL ranking): Tampa again holds the edge - 16th in scoring, 24th in points allowed (combined rank of 40).
Carolina is 28th and 14th (rank of 42).
- Point differential in common games: Tampa leads, -10 to Carolina’s -46.
- Overall point differential: Tampa again leads, -27 to Carolina’s -53.
- Touchdown differential: Carolina has a slight edge here, -6 to Tampa’s -7.
- Final tiebreaker: The coin toss. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
So what does all that mean? If the Bucs can split with Carolina, they’re still in a strong position to take the division thanks to favorable numbers in most of the deeper tiebreakers.
But it’s not a lock. A sweep by either team, of course, ends all debate.
The Road Ahead
Here’s how the final stretch looks for both teams:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
- Dec.
7: Lost to New Orleans, 24-20
- Dec.
11: Lost to Atlanta, 29-28
- **Dec. 21: at Carolina, 1 p.m.
ET (Fox)**
- Dec. 28: at Miami, 1 p.m.
ET (Fox)
- TBD: vs.
Carolina (Week 18)
Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Dec.
7: Bye
- Dec.
14: Lost to New Orleans, 20-17
- **Dec. 21: vs.
Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)**
- Dec. 28: vs. Seattle, 1 p.m.
ET (CBS)
- TBD: at Tampa Bay (Week 18)
What’s at Stake
The winner of the NFC South is almost certainly headed for the No. 4 seed and a home playoff game - likely against a Wild Card team with a better record. That’s the reality of the NFL’s seeding system. But for two teams hovering around .500, hosting a playoff game would be a major accomplishment.
For Tampa, it would be a fifth straight division title - a testament to staying power in a league built for turnover. For Carolina, it would mark their first NFC South crown since 2015 and a sign that Bryce Young might be steering the franchise back toward relevance.
It starts today in Charlotte. Two teams.
Two games. One division title on the line.
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Streaming: Fubo (free trial available)
Buckle up. The NFC South is going down to the wire.