The New Orleans Pelicans can absolutely be better this season and still wind up outside the playoff picture. That’s the first thing to keep in mind before the optimism of training camp starts getting dressed up like expectation.
Last season’s 26 wins set the baseline, and it’s a steep climb from there. Getting to .500 means 41 victories.
A winning record requires 42. In the West, even that might not buy you much.
The franchise’s history says the road back is rarely quick. New Orleans has finished below 30 wins five times, though one of those came in the lockout-shortened 66-game 2011-12 season, so that one doesn’t line up cleanly with the others.
In the four completed seasons that followed those down years, the Pelicans posted 38, 34, 27 and 26 wins. None of those teams finished above .500.
That’s not a giant sample, but it does underline how hard it is for this franchise to turn a bad year into a respectable one. The best rebound came after 2004-05, when New Orleans jumped from 18 wins to 38. That 20-game leap still stands as the biggest improvement in team history, and even that wasn’t enough to reach the playoffs.
There have been four New Orleans teams that added at least 10 wins from one season to the next: 2005-06 with a plus-20 jump, 2007-08 with plus-17, 2014-15 with plus-11 and 2017-18 with plus-14. The last three of those teams made the playoffs.
Even so, those squads averaged 31.3 wins the year before their breakout, nearly five more than last season’s Pelicans. Only two of the four managed to improve by 15 wins or more.
So when the conversation turns to 41 or 42 wins, what’s being asked is not a modest step forward. It’s one of the biggest turnarounds in franchise history.
That doesn’t make it impossible. Five NBA teams improved by at least 10 wins last season.
San Antonio finished with the league’s best gain at 28 wins, with a healthy Victor Wembanyama driving the surge on both ends and a backcourt deep enough to matter every night.
Charlotte added 25 victories behind an elite perimeter offense sparked by rookie Kon Knueppel, though the Hornets still went out in the play-in.
Philadelphia picked up 21 wins with Tyrese Maxey and rookie VJ Edgecombe leading the way.
Detroit followed a double-digit leap with another one, as Cade Cunningham’s MVP-level play lifted the Pistons by 16 wins and all the way to the East’s best record.
Toronto also made a big move, getting an All-Star season from former Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram and riding a strong start to a 16-win jump.
Those five teams averaged 30.2 wins before the surge and 51.4 afterward. Charlotte and Philadelphia began with fewer wins than New Orleans had last season, so a rough year doesn’t rule out a major rebound. It just doesn’t make one easy to bank on.
The conference split matters too. Four of those five teams came out of the East.
San Antonio was the lone Western team to improve by 10 wins or more. Phoenix was next in the West at plus-nine, followed by Portland at plus-six.
Utah and New Orleans each added five. The Spurs were the outlier.
If the Pelicans improve by 10 wins, they’d finish 36-46. That’s not nothing, and it’s worth remembering that the 2021-22 team made the playoffs at 36-46 after winning two play-in games. But that’s not a path anyone can simply pencil in and count on again.
Preseason projections have placed New Orleans anywhere from 27.5 to 29.5 wins, depending on where you look. The Pelicans can beat that. Hitting 42 is a different matter entirely.
For that to happen, Zion Williamson would need to deliver at an All-NBA level for at least 65 games. Dejounte Murray would have to show he can still steer a quality team.
Trey Murphy would need to take the leap from second option to star. Herb Jones would have to rediscover his shot.
The young players would need to mature fast. And Jamahl Mosley would have to turn one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams into something at least passable on that end.
A season in the 33-to-36-win range would count as real progress. Getting to 37 through 40 would be a strong year and better than most outside expectations.
Could the Pelicans finish above .500? Sure. But that should be the ceiling, not the measuring stick for whether this team actually got better.
What New Orleans needs most is certainty - about who it is and where it’s headed. If that clarity shows up this season, the wins should follow. If it doesn’t, the record will say so plainly enough.
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