The two offer sheets hanging over this offseason are very different problems, even if they’re both forcing front offices into the same uncomfortable spot.
Utah Mammoth center Barrett Hayton and Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson are both waiting on decisions, but the stakes and the math don’t line up the same way. The Mammoth have until Wednesday, July 8, to match Hayton’s offer sheet.
The Ducks have until Friday, July 10, to decide on Carlsson. And while both teams can keep their players, both also have to weigh whether the draft compensation is the better move.
Hayton’s situation looks simpler at first glance, but it isn’t.
The New Jersey Devils signed him to a one-year, $4.775 million offer sheet, and because Hayton is 26, he’s only one year from unrestricted free agency. That’s where the poison pill comes in. If Utah matches, GM Bill Armstrong can’t trade Hayton for a year, which would push him right to UFA status next summer.
The compensation for letting him go would be a 2027 second-round pick. Cam Robinson of Elite Prospects reported that the Devils and Mammoth were close to a trade for Hayton at the draft, but Utah pulled out at the last minute.
That matters, because it suggests the Mammoth were already at least thinking about moving him. It also fits the shape of their roster after acquiring Vincent Trocheck from the New York Rangers. Their center group now includes Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, and Trocheck, with Kevin Stenlund as a fourth-line center and Jack McBain also able to play down the middle.
The Mammoth have the cap room to keep Hayton. Once his $4.775 million hit is included, they still have about $4.58 million in space.
But this decision isn’t really about whether they can fit him. It’s about whether they need him, especially if they were already shopping him.
If that’s the case, the second-round pick may be the cleaner outcome, since matching would lock them in and remove the option to move him.
There’s also the possibility that Hayton simply wants a change. The Devils aren’t throwing absurd money at him - this isn’t an $18 million-a-year situation - so the offer itself is close enough to market value that the appeal may be more about the destination than the dollars. My lean would be toward Utah declining to match and letting him go to New Jersey.
Carlsson is a much messier call.
Elliotte Friedman reported that the Ducks had been quiet this offseason in part to prepare for a possible offer sheet on Carlsson. Even so, this is probably not the kind of offer they expected. The Flyers went all the way to an $18 million average annual value over five years, which would make Carlsson the highest-paid player in the NHL.
That leaves Anaheim staring at a brutal choice: match, or take four first-round picks.
On paper, the answer should be to keep Carlsson. He’s a 21-year-old first-line center who hasn’t even reached his prime.
Players like that are almost impossible to replace. But the money is the problem.
He is not an $18 million-per-year player, and he almost certainly never will be. That kind of number belongs to the Connor McDavids of the world, not a player still climbing toward his ceiling.
The draft compensation sounds huge, but it may not be as valuable as it looks. If the Flyers are good enough to land Carlsson, those first-round picks are likely to land in the middle or late part of the round.
That’s not usually where you find the next first-line center or top-pair defenseman. Anaheim would also have eight first-round picks over the next four NHL drafts if it let him go, but quantity doesn’t guarantee a replacement for Carlsson.
The Ducks could use some of that draft capital to chase a center, and Dylan Larkin is one name that fits. But he’s not Carlsson, and the age gap is nearly 10 years. That matters for a team whose contention window is just opening.
That’s why matching feels like the more likely outcome, even if it creates headaches. Pat Verbeek says that’s the direction the Ducks are headed, but the club has also let this situation get far more complicated than it needed to be. If they match, their cap structure gets ugly fast.
They already had to overpay Pavel Mintyukov, who also looked like an offer sheet target, and now they still have to find room to re-sign Cutter Gauthier, who is also an RFA and could command an AAV in eight figures. Keeping Carlsson would squeeze everything else around him, but it may still be the least damaging option.
So the Mammoth and the Ducks are facing the same basic question, but with very different answers. Utah’s choice feels more straightforward, especially with Trocheck now in the mix. Anaheim’s is the kind of decision that can shape the next several years of the roster.
Either way, the clock is ticking.
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