The New Jersey Devils’ 2025-26 season has been a maddening puzzle - one where the pieces look like they should fit, but somehow the picture never comes together. Despite boasting a talented roster and generating solid scoring chances, the Devils are finding ways to lose games they statistically should be winning. And the numbers don’t just hint at it - they scream it.
Let’s start with the basics: the Devils are struggling to put the puck in the net at 5-on-5. Really struggling.
According to Natural Stat Trick, they’re averaging just 1.94 goals per 60 minutes at even strength - the lowest mark in the NHL by a wide margin. Every other team in the league is converting at least 6.2% more often.
That’s a brutal gap in a league where margins are razor-thin.
But here’s where things get weird. You’d expect a team with that kind of scoring drought to be getting outplayed.
Except… they’re not. In fact, in their 24 losses (0-22-2), the Devils have a positive scoring chance differential - plus-25.
They’re generating more chances than their opponents and still walking away empty-handed. Flip it around, and in their 26 wins (26-0-0), they’ve actually been out-chanced - by 51.
That’s not just counterintuitive, it’s downright bizarre.
So what’s going on?
The Finishing Problem
Let’s talk finishing - or more accurately, the lack of it. The Devils have scored 81 goals at 5v5 this season, but based on the quality of their chances, they were expected to score 107.61.
That’s a deficit of 26.61 goals below expected - the worst mark in the league. For context, the next-worst team, Vancouver, is at minus-20.60.
That’s a canyon-sized gap.
Their shooting percentage at 5v5 sits at a flat 7% - again, dead last in the NHL. Twelve teams are over 10%, and while that may not sound like a massive difference, it equates to roughly 28 more goals this season. That’s the kind of swing that can change a team’s entire trajectory.
Let’s break it down further. In their 26 wins, the Devils have scored 57 goals on 565 shots - good for a 10.1% shooting percentage.
That’s above average, and it actually exceeds their expected goals total in those games by 6.79. In other words, they’re finishing well when they win.
But in their 24 losses? Just 24 goals on 592 shots - a brutal 4.1% conversion rate.
That’s 33.40 goals below expected. On average, they’re leaving 1.40 goals on the table per game in those losses.
That’s not just a finishing issue - it’s a full-blown crisis.
High-Danger, Low Reward
The Devils aren’t just throwing pucks at the net from bad angles. They’re generating high-danger chances - and lots of them.
In fact, they’ve had nearly the same number of high-danger scoring opportunities in wins (230) as they have in losses (229). But the outcomes couldn’t be more different.
In their wins, 29 of those high-danger chances have found the back of the net - a 21.4% shooting percentage. In losses?
Just 10 goals on 146 high-danger shots - a paltry 6.8%. That means only 4.3% of their total high-danger chances in losses have resulted in goals.
So what gives? It’s not that they’re missing the net - 63.7% of their high-danger chances in losses are on goal, compared to 58.7% in wins.
But they’re not beating goalies. They’re hitting them.
Right in the logo. Over and over again.
Head coach Sheldon Keefe put it plainly after a recent loss: “When you’re not feeling it, instead of the puck kind of going post and in, you end up kind of overthinking it and hitting the goalie in the chest.” That’s not just coach-speak - it’s backed up by the data.
And here’s the kicker: when the Devils outshoot their opponents, they’re 11-16-2. When they get outshot?
They’re 13-4-0. That’s a stat that makes you do a double take.
It suggests that maybe the volume of shots isn’t the issue - it’s the intent, the execution, and the confidence behind them.
Power Play Letdown
If the Devils were hoping their power play could bail them out, they’ve been sorely disappointed. With 25 goals on 34.63 expected, their man advantage is also underperforming - minus-9.63 goals below expected.
Their power play is converting at 20.3%, which ranks 16th in the NHL. Not terrible, but not helping.
Compare that to last season, when they scored 61 goals on 61.94 expected - essentially finishing right at expected, and good enough for third-best in the league at 28.2%. If they were even close to that level this year, they’d be sitting at around 27.6% - and back in the top five.
Add it all up, and the Devils are sitting 36.24 goals below expected between 5v5 and the power play. That’s not just bad luck - that’s the difference between being a playoff lock and being on the outside looking in.
Their current goal differential is minus-20, which ranks 27th in the NHL. If they were finishing at a league-average rate, they’d be plus-16 - seventh-best in the league.
What About the Goaltending?
Here’s the twist: goaltending isn’t the problem. In fact, it’s been solid.
The Devils have allowed 110 goals on 113.21 expected - a positive differential of 3.21 goals saved above expected. Their team save percentage of .894 ranks 15th - right in the middle of the pack.
That’s a huge improvement from previous years, when subpar goaltending was the Achilles heel.
So now the narrative has flipped. For years, the refrain was, “If the Devils could just get league-average goaltending, they’d be a contender.” Well, they’ve got it - and now even prime Martin Brodeur might not be enough to save them from their finishing woes.
Still Time, But Not Much
The good news? The Devils aren’t out of it.
They’re just five points behind the New York Islanders for third place in the Metropolitan Division, with 32 games still to play. The bad news?
They’ve burned through a lot of runway.
The best time to add a finisher was a month ago. The next best time is right now.
Because the numbers don’t lie - the Devils’ process is mostly sound. They’re generating chances.
They’re getting saves. But until they start cashing in on those chances, they’ll keep leaving points - and possibly a playoff spot - on the table.