The New Jersey Devils have the kind of roster that should keep them in the postseason conversation. The talent is there, and the pieces are there. But the numbers still aren’t treating them like a true lock.
MoneyPuck’s latest projections peg the Devils at a 57.2% chance of making the playoffs, which leaves them in that uneasy middle ground - better than a pure coin flip, but not by much. They’re not alone in that range, either, with contenders like the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals sitting around the same neighborhood.
So why aren’t the analytics fully buying in yet?
Inconsistency is a big reason. The Devils have looked all over the map at times, which makes it hard for projection models to settle on a clear season-long direction.
They absorbed a 6-0 loss to the New York Islanders, then answered with a 7-1 blowout of the New York Rangers. More recently, they beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 after a 4-2 loss to the Capitals.
That kind of swing doesn’t give the algos much to work with. One night they look unstoppable, the next they’re getting punched in the mouth. Until that changes, the projections are likely to stay cautious.
Goaltending may be part of it, too. Jake Allen and Nico Daws have both put together better performances over the last three or four games, but the overall season body of work still hasn’t convinced the models just yet. For the projections to move in the Devils’ favor, one or both goalies are going to have to show steady consistency.
The bigger truth is simple: the Devils will need to keep climbing the standings before the odds really start shifting. And with the way the Metro Division has played out, it’s not out of the question for New Jersey to push the Carolina Hurricanes for the top spot.
Thursday night’s 4-1 win over the Anaheim Ducks may have offered a better sign of where this is headed. Nico Daws handled the goal, the offense came through, and the Devils looked more like a team moving in the right direction. If that version of New Jersey sticks, the playoff picture should start looking a lot clearer.
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It has also come at the right time for a Devils team that has been searching for the right complement to Hughes at the top of the lineup. Gritsyuk, who was re-signed to a three-year contract in the offseason, has now put together a four-game scoring streak, giving Keefe a reason to keep leaning into the combination. For a club that wants more finishing touch around its star center, this may be the most encouraging development of the early season. [Read more 🡒]
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Stefan Noesen's Devils Future Suddenly Feels Far Less Certain
Stefan Noesens time with the Devils has taken a turn from secure to unsettled in a hurry. After signing a three-year deal in New Jersey and turning in a strong season, he saw his progress interrupted by a knee injury that required surgery, a setback that limited his role the following year and changed the conversation around where he fits going forward.
Now on loan to the Utica Comets in the AHL and working through a contract year, Noesen sits in an awkward spot for a player who once looked like a straightforward part of the roster. There has been speculation about trades and other roster moves, but nothing has been finalized, leaving his Devils future much less certain than it seemed not long ago. [Read more 🡒]