Through eight games, the New Jersey Devils have given fans a familiar headache: the results don’t match what the numbers are saying.
At the surface, a .500 record is a .500 record. But under the hood, this version of the Devils has been tracking as something much stronger. In fact, the first stretch of the 2026-27 season has produced the club’s best underlying numbers since 2022-23, the year New Jersey set a franchise record for wins and standings points.
That 2022-23 team was a monster analytically. The Devils finished with the second-best expected goal share in the NHL behind the Carolina Hurricanes, controlling 55.7% of expected goals. They also ranked third in offensive chance generation at 3.1 expected goals for per hour, while allowing just 2.5 expected goals against per hour, good for ninth in the league.
What came after was a step back, then a wobble, then a collapse.
In 2023-24, the two-way profile that had made New Jersey so dangerous fell apart. The Devils’ overall expected goal share cratered, the offense fell to 2.5 xGF/60, and the defense slipped to 22nd in the league in xGA/60. That season ended with Lindy Ruff being fired, and the team finished with an xGF% of slightly under 50%, which ranked 19th.
The first year under Sheldon Keefe, 2024-25, brought a cleaner defensive shape. The offense stayed stuck at 2.5 xGF/60, but the Devils tightened up enough to post an xGA/60 of 2.3, eighth-best in the NHL. That lifted them to a 52.1% xGF%, 12th in the league, and back into the postseason.
Last season was the ugly one. The offense stalled, finishing suffered, injuries hit hard, and the defensive edge vanished. New Jersey ended at 48.6% in expected goal share, 20th in the NHL, and missed the playoffs.
This season’s first eight games have pointed in the opposite direction. The Devils sit first in xGF%, controlling 60% of expected goals, and their 3.3 xGF/60 is best in the league.
Defensively, public analytics have them at 2.2 xGA/60, which ranks fifth in the NHL. That profile looks a lot better than a team sitting at .500.
Still, the schedule has mattered. The Devils have run into three legitimate tests already - Utah Mammoth, Ottawa Senators, and Washington Capitals - and they were outplayed in all three losses. Score effects helped inflate the underlying numbers in the Ottawa and Washington games, and the 6-0 loss to the Islanders also carried that element.
But the broader point remains: plenty of teams have faced soft competition early, and none have controlled the underlying game quite like New Jersey has. Score effects are part of the sport, but they don’t erase the fact that the Devils’ process should have produced better results than it has.
The real answer, then, is still coming. The upcoming stretch will be a tougher one, with the competition level rising and the travel far from ideal. Soon enough, we’ll find out whether this process is built to survive against genuine contenders.
In Other News...
Avalanche Get A Tougher Devils Test With One Key Forward Back
Luke Evangelista is set to rejoin the Devils lineup after missing three games with an illness, and his return comes at a time when New Jersey could use a little more punch up front. He is expected back in his usual top-six role for the matchup with the Colorado Avalanche, giving the Devils a familiar piece in a part of the lineup that has been asked to carry a lot of weight early.
For New Jersey, the timing matters beyond just getting one skater back. Evangelista came over from the Nashville Predators in the offseason and recently secured a five-year contract extension, so every game he plays now carries a little more meaning for a team trying to settle its forward mix while taking on a quality opponent. The Avalanche will have to deal with a Devils group that looks more complete with him available, even if there is still plenty to sort out around how quickly he settles back in. [Read more 🡒]
Islanders Suddenly Have A Depth Problem Devils Fans Should Notice
The Metropolitan Division picture got a little more unsettled this week as the Islanders had to lean on emergency depth, a reminder that injuries can reshape the race faster than any standings update. Around the league, Toronto and Philadelphia also dipped into their AHL pipelines, but the Islanders move stood out because it came alongside a growing list of unavailable regulars.
New Jersey has been watching the division tightly, and this is the kind of development Devils fans should notice. With Alexander Romanov on injured reserve after a torn ACL and Matias Maccelli and Cal Ritchie both leaving a recent game with lower-body injuries, the Islanders are suddenly trying to patch together their lineup while the schedule keeps moving. For a team already looking for stability, the next few days could tell a lot about how deep the roster really is. [Read more 🡒]
Devils Keep Showing One Frustrating Problem They Still Haven't Fixed
The Devils latest week offered a pretty familiar snapshot of where they are right now: capable of looking sharp against a rival, then slipping back into the kind of uneven play that has kept them from stacking wins. Their 7-1 rout of the Rangers showed what this group can do when the offense is humming, with Luke Hughes and Jack Hughes helping drive production, but the follow-up 4-2 loss to Washington served as a reminder that one strong night has not yet translated into steady form.
What keeps surfacing is the same frustrating middle stretch, where games seem to get away from them and the second period has become a recurring problem. New Jersey also needs a little more from the supporting cast and some cleaner work on the power play if it wants to turn flashes of dominance into something more reliable, because right now the talent is there but the consistency is still missing. [Read more 🡒]