The New Jersey Devils kept reshaping their forward group Wednesday morning, and the latest move may have put Dawson Mercer in a tough spot.
The team announced a two-year contract for veteran winger Anthony Mantha worth a $4.75 million AAV, adding another proven scorer to a group that has already been busy this offseason under Sunny Mehta. Mantha is the third forward to arrive, joining Evan Rodrigues and Jesper Boqvist, both of whom came over in the trade that sent aging netminder Jacob Markstrom to the Florida Panthers.
That flurry of additions has given the Devils a forward corps that looks deeper than it has since perhaps the franchise-record 2022-23 season. But it has also crowded the picture for Mercer, whose place in the lineup suddenly looks less secure.
The case against Mercer is pretty straightforward. He is still just 24 and has never missed a game in his career, but his game has stalled.
He has not come close to matching the production he posted three seasons ago, and in some ways he has slipped. The big flashes have become less frequent, and over time he has faded more into the background.
Whether that comes down to the systems he’s played in, the team’s overall regression, or the tough defensive assignments he’s handled next to Nico Hischier, the trend has been the same: lateral at best, downward at worst.
Mantha brings a very different profile. He is coming off a 33-goal season and has a track record of winning his minutes in third-line usage. Over his career, he has averaged 25 goals per 82 games, and his style seems tailor-made for the Devils’ top six, especially if he ends up alongside Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.
Rodrigues is a different kind of addition, but one that also pushes Mercer down the pecking order. His raw production has not always jumped off the page, but the underlying numbers have been consistently strong.
Over the last five seasons, he has posted an expected goal share of at least 53.5% every year, including two seasons that were close to 60%. He has also delivered in the playoffs, putting up 30 points - nine goals and 21 assists - over his last two postseasons, a stretch of 45 games, and his former teammate gave him a glowing review.
Put it together, and the Devils have added one scorer who fits neatly with their best offensive pieces and another player who has repeatedly driven play and produced in big games. Both should be in the mix for top-six minutes, or at least ahead of Mercer.
And Mercer is not pushing any of the core forwards aside. He now appears to be competing with or sitting behind Gritsyuk, Mantha, and Rodrigues for the final two top-six spots. With Mehta clearly drawn to players who make their presence felt all over the ice, and Mercer disappearing for stretches, it is very possible he has already played his last game in a Devils uniform.
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