The New Jersey Devils’ forward picture is crowded enough that even a former first-round pick like Dawson Mercer is no longer easy to place.
At the moment, the Devils have 13 forwards who are essentially locked into NHL roster spots, and that number does not include Lenni Hameenaho or Shane Lachance, both of whom were expected to be full-time NHL players by now. It also leaves out AHL options such as Amadeus Lombardi, Marc McLaughlin, and newly signed Colin White, which pushes the total to 18 forwards competing for 13-14 spots.
A few roles are already easy to see. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are almost certain to skate together, and Nico Hischier and Timo Meier look like another fixed pair.
Cody Glass appears set as the third-line center. After that, the picture gets murky fast.
Stefan Noesen is one of the harder players to pin down. It is unclear whether he makes the roster at all or begins the season as a healthy scratch, which would be a tough outcome at $2.75 million per season. Jesper Boqvist, brought back by the Devils, seems likely to land on the fourth line, but he still has to show Sheldon Keefe that he belongs in the lineup every night, especially since he never played for him before.
Mercer is the most complicated case of all. He has shown real ability at different points, but the inconsistency that surfaced last season has cooled a lot of the optimism around him.
His best stretches came in 2021-22, when he was a rookie, and again in 2022-23. He has also never missed a game in his career.
Even so, the production has not quite matched the expectations that followed him.
Mercer finished 2022-23 with 56 points, then dropped to 33 points the next season. Last season, he got back over 40 points for the first time since that 56-point year, but belief in his upward trajectory has clearly faded.
He is only 24, so there should still be another level for him to reach. The problem is that his path is not obvious. He does not look like a long-term center, which leaves him battling for wing minutes alongside Hughes or Hischier.
That fight is not getting any easier. Connor Brown, Evan Rodrigues, Anthony Mantha, and Arseny Gritsyuk are all in the mix for those spots. Mercer may have the edge on paper, but Brown worked well with Hughes last season, Mantha scored 33 goals last season, and Gritsyuk is viewed as a rising talent in the organization.
There is also a version of the Devils where Mercer simply fits better on the third line. A lineup built around Brown-Hughes-Bratt, Gritsyuk-Hischier-Meier, Mantha-Glass-Mercer, and Boqvist-Bjugstad-Rodrigues would still leave Noesen, Hammenaho, and others on the outside looking in, while giving the Devils a deeper group of lines that can all score. That setup would even allow Brown and Mantha to be switched, making the top line more dangerous offensively.
From that angle, Mercer on the third line may be the cleanest fit. Putting him next to one of the league’s best center duos does not seem like the best answer for either goal scoring or defensive balance, and it does not look like the kind of move Sheldon Keefe would make.
That leaves one more possibility: a move somewhere else. The Devils have already shown they can pivot when they do not find the trade partner they want, as they did with Simon Nemec, when Sunny Mehta took a haul of draft picks that included two first-rounders. If Mercer does not fit the way they want, could they eventually treat him the same way?
Anything can happen, but with August here, the Devils appear close to finished shaping the roster. The depth is real, and for once they have enough forwards that injuries would be a problem without turning the season into a crisis. Mercer’s ability to adapt may end up helping the Devils more than any fixed label ever could.
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