The Devils walked out of Tuesday with a 4-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche and a 5-4 record, back over .500 and right in the thick of a crowded Metropolitan Division race. Washington is sitting on a similar mark, the Islanders are one point ahead of the Devils and Capitals, and the Hurricanes and Rangers have separated themselves a bit from the pack.
New Jersey’s play has been strong enough to back up the results. The Devils controlled the Avalanche across the board, piled up the shot attempts, and carried a significant edge in expected goals. The underlying numbers have been excellent, and the team is getting real payoff from several offseason decisions that look sharp in hindsight.
Luke Evangelista added another goal on Tuesday and has settled in seamlessly. Moving Simon Nemec appears to have been the right call, and Amadeus Lombardi has emerged as what might be the best bet any GM made this offseason.
But one name remains a nagging issue: Dawson Mercer.
Mercer was never moved this offseason, even though his name had been floating around in trade talk since the Quinn Hughes trade started to gain traction. Whether that chatter has affected him is impossible to say, but something about his production is clearly out of sync.
He still hasn’t scored a goal this season. That by itself wouldn’t be shocking over a short stretch, except Mercer has now had more than one drought like this before.
He has been a reliable 20-goal scorer in his career, and after putting up 27 goals in 22-23, the hope was that he would keep building from there. Instead, the offense has gone the other way.
At this point, Mercer looks less like a rising scorer and more like a player whose game is centered around work near the crease. That’s useful, but it’s not nearly enough to match the role he was expected to grow into.
The bigger question is where he fits in this Devils attack. He’s on pace for about 35 points, and his line combinations haven’t helped him settle in. He has just four assists, no goals, and has bounced between the second and third lines without finding much chemistry.
Recently, Mercer has been skating with Anthony Mantha and Evan Rodrigues. Before that, he filled in on the second line next to Nico Hischier and Timo Meier in the spot previously occupied by Evangelista, and he looked more comfortable there. Even so, the top six is crowded with better options right now.
That leaves Mercer needing to carve out a real offensive role lower in the lineup, and he hasn’t done that yet.
If he can’t, the noise around his future is only going to get louder. He’s 24 and should be squarely in his prime, but instead his production seems to tick down year after year. That’s a problem for a Devils team playing this well.
There is still a path where his inconsistency turns into a weapon. A hot run in the playoffs could be a difference-maker and push New Jersey through multiple rounds. But if he goes cold when it matters most, he could become awfully difficult to keep in the lineup.
In Other News...
Devils Face A Huge Dylan Larkin Decision For Their Core
A potential Dylan Larkin chase would instantly change the conversation around the Devils, because the Red Wings captain is reportedly willing to consider New Jersey among a list of teams if Detroit ever moved him. For a club still trying to sharpen its core, the appeal is obvious: Larkin brings the kind of scoring punch and two-way reliability that can alter a lineups ceiling, and his contract status only adds to the intrigue around any possible deal.
The cost, of course, would be steep, and the framework being discussed would force the Devils to make a real judgment call on their future. Dawson Mercer, Seamus Casey, Brenden Dillon and a 2027 first-round pick is the sort of package that can reshape a roster in one swing, which is why this sort of rumor always lands so heavily in New Jersey. The upside is easy to see, but the bigger question is how much of the current core the Devils would be willing to sacrifice to land a player of Larkins caliber. [Read more 🡒]