The Houston Texans just punched their ticket to the Divisional Round, and they did it in convincing fashion. A 30-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road doesn’t just happen by accident-it was a statement, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense, which has been one of the most reliable units all season, absolutely smothered Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' offense, keeping them out of the end zone and setting the tone from the first snap to the final whistle.
Let’s start with that defense. All year long, DeMeco Ryans’ crew has been the anchor of this team, and they showed exactly why in the Wild Card Round.
They didn’t just contain Rodgers-they dismantled the Steelers’ offensive rhythm. The front seven was relentless, the secondary stayed tight, and the entire unit played with the kind of discipline and swagger that makes you think they could hang with anyone left in the playoff field.
But while the defense was lights-out, the offense told a much more complicated story.
CJ Stroud, who’s had an impressive rookie campaign overall, had a rough night despite the final score. The Texans moved the ball well at times, but Stroud’s ball security issues nearly let Pittsburgh hang around longer than they should have.
He fumbled five times-yes, five-and lost two of them. Add in a red-zone interception on third down, and you’ve got three turnovers in a playoff game.
That kind of sloppiness didn’t cost them against a struggling Steelers offense, but it’s the kind of thing that will absolutely get you beat against a team like the New England Patriots.
That’s the next challenge: a Divisional Round matchup with a Patriots team that’s getting healthy at the right time and has found its groove defensively. If Stroud wants to keep Houston’s playoff run alive, job No. 1 is cleaning up the turnovers.
That’s not just coach-speak-it’s a real concern. The Texans were one of the best teams in the league in turnover margin during the regular season, finishing at plus-17.
They gave the ball away just 12 times (second-fewest in the NFL) and forced 29 turnovers (third-most). That advantage has been a key part of their identity under Ryans.
But in some of their biggest games, that edge has slipped. Monday night’s three giveaways continued a troubling trend.
Stroud also threw two picks in a critical Week 17 game against the Chargers. If the Texans are going to take the next step, they need their young quarterback to protect the football like he did for much of the regular season.
Now, let’s talk about the run game-because it quietly played a huge role in that Wild Card win. Houston’s ground game has been a weak spot all year.
In fact, they ranked 31st in rushing success rate during the regular season, ahead of only the Raiders. Their EPA per rush was also near the bottom of the league.
Simply put, they’ve struggled to consistently move the ball on the ground.
But against Pittsburgh? Different story.
The Texans ran for 164 yards on 31 carries, posted a 45.2% success rate, and actually finished with a positive EPA per rush (+0.13). That’s a massive improvement and a big reason why the offense was able to stay on schedule even with the turnovers.
When Stroud wasn’t giving the ball away, the Texans were controlling the tempo and keeping their defense fresh.
That kind of performance on the ground won’t be easy to replicate against New England. The Patriots just held the Chargers to under four yards per carry and a 36.4% success rate in their own Wild Card win.
And they’ve been solid all year against the run, finishing 11th in the league in EPA per rush allowed-tied with the Texans, in fact. And that was without Milton Williams for much of the season.
Now that he’s back and making his presence felt again, the Patriots’ front is even tougher to crack.
To put it plainly: the Texans can’t count on gashing New England the way they did Pittsburgh. If the run game regresses and Stroud continues to turn the ball over, this game could get away from Houston in a hurry. The Patriots may not have the flashiest offense in the league, but with Drake Maye under center and a defense that’s peaking at the right time, they’re more than capable of capitalizing on mistakes.
Houston’s path forward is clear. The defense is elite, the run game showed signs of life, and the team has already proven it can win on the road in January.
But if they want to keep this ride going, Stroud has to protect the football. Because in the playoffs, the margin for error shrinks fast-and against the Patriots, every possession is going to matter.