The AFC North is once again living up to its reputation as one of the NFL’s toughest divisions - and as we head into the final stretch of the 2025 regular season, the race between the Steelers and Ravens is shaping up to be a classic. With just a few weeks left on the calendar, both teams are still in the hunt for the division crown, but only one is likely to punch a postseason ticket.
The stakes? A home playoff game and major bragging rights in one of football’s fiercest rivalries.
Right now, it’s Pittsburgh that holds the edge. Sitting at 7-6, the Steelers are clinging to the AFC North lead and the No. 4 seed in the conference heading into a high-stakes Monday Night Football matchup against the Dolphins. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 7-7 after pitching a shutout against the Bengals - a 24-0 win that not only kept their own hopes alive but also officially knocked Cincinnati out of the playoff picture.
The math is simple, but the path is anything but. With the Texans holding the final AFC wild-card spot at 9-5, it’s looking more and more like only one of these AFC North teams will make it in. So, let’s break it down: what exactly needs to happen for either the Steelers or Ravens to secure a postseason berth?
Pittsburgh’s Path: Win and You’re In
For the Steelers, it starts with handling business under the lights on Monday night. A win over Miami keeps them one game ahead of Baltimore and firmly in control of their own destiny. Even if they lose to the Dolphins and drop to 7-7, Pittsburgh still holds the tiebreaker over the Ravens thanks to their 27-22 win back on December 7.
After Miami, the Steelers face a gauntlet to close out the regular season: the Lions in Week 16, the Browns in Week 17, and the Ravens in a potentially decisive Week 18 showdown. If they run the table and finish 11-6, they’ll lock up the division title, no questions asked.
But let’s say both teams finish with the same record. If Pittsburgh wins that Week 18 rematch, they take the division on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Baltimore wins it, things get a little trickier. The next tiebreaker is divisional record - and heading into Week 16, the Steelers are 3-1 in the AFC North, while the Ravens are 3-2.
That’s an edge Pittsburgh would love to maintain.
Baltimore’s Road: No Margin for Error
The Ravens, on the other hand, are in a tougher spot. At 7-7, they’ve got no wiggle room.
If they want to crash the postseason party, they’ll likely need to win out - starting with the Patriots in Week 16, followed by the Packers in Week 17, and then the Steelers in Week 18. That would put them at 10-7.
But even that might not be enough. If Pittsburgh also finishes 10-7 and wins the Week 18 game, Baltimore is out.
If Baltimore wins that finale and both teams are tied, the division could come down to divisional record - and if that’s tied too, the next tiebreaker is “best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.” It’s a razor-thin margin, and the Ravens know it.
The Bottom Line
This is what December football is all about. Two longtime rivals, one division title, and a playoff berth on the line.
The Steelers have the inside track, but the Ravens aren’t going away quietly - especially not after blanking a divisional opponent in Week 15. With both teams set to meet in the regular-season finale, it’s entirely possible that everything comes down to that final Sunday.
Circle Week 18 on your calendar. If the next couple of weeks go the right (or wrong) way, Steelers vs. Ravens could be the game that decides the AFC North - and maybe even more.