Did the Bills Expose a Flaw in the Patriots’ Offense - or Just Show the League a Way to Slow It Down?
FOXBORO - For most of the 2025 season, the Patriots offense looked like it had answers for everything. Single-high safety?
No problem. Two-high shells?
Handled. Blitzes?
Picked apart. Zone or man - didn’t matter.
Drake Maye was dealing, and the numbers backed it up. Heading into their bye week, Maye ranked as a top-10 quarterback in Expected Points Added (EPA) against just about every defensive look thrown his way.
But something shifted. And it may have started before the Patriots even realized it.
Between Week 6 and Week 14, Maye’s numbers against Cover 1 (man coverage with a single deep safety) took a dip - he dropped to 17th in EPA and was getting sacked at the third-highest rate in the league, nearly 16 percent of the time. That’s a red flag, especially for a quarterback who had been thriving against all kinds of coverages earlier in the season.
So when the Bills came to town in Week 15 and snapped New England’s 10-game win streak, you had to wonder: Did Buffalo find something on tape? Did they crack the code?
Well, not exactly - but they did mix things up in a way that clearly disrupted what had been one of the league’s most efficient passing attacks.
McDermott’s Defensive Masterclass
Bills head coach Sean McDermott didn’t just lean on one look. He threw a full defensive playbook at Maye, blending disguises, man coverage, and two-high shells with precision.
At times, Buffalo showed Cover 1 pre-snap and then rolled into Cover 2 after the snap, baiting Maye into holding the ball - one such disguise led directly to a sack in the third quarter. On another key third down, they showed Cover 1 again but dropped into Cover 5 (man underneath with two safeties over the top).
Later, they flipped the script - showing Cover 2 and rolling into Cover 5 - and forced an incompletion on a crucial third down during New England’s final drive.
It wasn’t just the coverage disguises that gave the Patriots fits. Buffalo also leaned heavily into two-high safety shells in the second half - lining up with two safeties deep on 80 percent of Maye’s 15 dropbacks. That’s a clear attempt to take away the deep ball - a part of the field where Maye has been lethal all season.
And when they weren’t sitting back in zone, the Bills dared the Patriots to win in tight man coverage. That’s not typically Buffalo’s go-to - McDermott’s defenses have historically leaned zone-heavy - but in the second half, he called man coverage on nearly half of Maye’s dropbacks (7 of 15).
The result? Just two completions for 32 yards.
Maye: “You Gotta Win vs. Man”
Maye knows exactly what’s happening. He’s not shying away from it either.
“When they do play man,” he said Wednesday, “we just gotta win at the top of the route. I think our guys have done that and shown that...
When you get down late in the season, on third down and in the red zone, you're going to see man. Teams are going to play man.
You have to win versus man in this league. It’s why those guys, the receivers, they get paid.”
Maye also pointed to his own responsibilities - ball placement, decision-making, and finding the open man. It’s not just on the receivers to win their matchups; it’s on the quarterback to deliver the ball where it needs to be.
Receivers Feeling the Pressure
Veteran wideout Mack Hollins echoed that sentiment. He said Mike Vrabel has been hammering home the importance of being ready for man coverage - and not getting caught off guard if it turns into zone post-snap.
“If you get man, you gotta win,” Hollins said. “If it’s zone, you gotta give Drake the spacing he needs.
Don’t be surprised if it looks like man and flips to zone. That can mess with the quarterback’s read.
You gotta be able to recognize it, and if it’s man-to-man, you have to win - or you can’t play in this league.”
That’s not just motivational coach-speak - the numbers back it up. Over the last four games, Maye has completed just 56.3 percent of his passes against man coverage, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt.
His passer rating in those situations? 76.4 - 19th in the league.
His EPA? A negative -5.95, which ranks 24th.
That’s a significant dip for a quarterback who was lighting up defenses earlier in the year.
Vrabel: “We’ve Gotta Win Those Matchups”
Vrabel isn’t panicking, but he’s not sugarcoating it either.
“There’s always opportunities for us to win in match coverage,” he said. “There’s been times where we’ve done that - Diggs had a win on third down, Mack had a win on an in-cut.
But there’s also times we’ve been covered. When that happens, we need Drake to extend the play or scramble.
Whatever coverage they’re in, we have to be detailed in our routes and spacing - and have answers when we’re matched.”
That’s the chess match. It’s not just about beating man coverage - it’s about recognizing it, adjusting to it, and executing under pressure.
Diggs: “Better Show Me Than Tell Me”
Even Stefon Diggs, who typically welcomes man coverage, admitted that it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing lately. Over the last four games, he has just three catches for 35 yards against man looks.
Still, he’s not backing down from the challenge - especially with the Ravens up next, a team known for their aggressive man schemes.
“I much prefer it, if you may,” Diggs said. “At least you know what you’re getting.
One-on-one, you’re against one other guy. You don’t have to read too much coverage...
I think we’ve got a lot of skill guys, including myself, who know how to get open. But better show me than tell me.”
Looking Ahead: Will the Ravens Follow the Blueprint?
That’s the big question now. Will Baltimore try to replicate what Buffalo did? Maye thinks it’s possible - but also believes every defense has its own identity.
“I’m sure teams do whatever other defenses tried to do to ‘stop us’ or feel like worked,” he said. “But you never really know until you get out there and snap the football.
We’re trying to control what we can - better ball placement, better decisions. That’s what we can control.
Let the rest sort itself out.”
The Patriots offense has been one of the league’s most potent this season. But now, with defenses starting to get more aggressive in man coverage and disguises, the challenge is clear: adjust, adapt, and win the one-on-one battles.
Because down the stretch - especially in December and January - that's what separates contenders from pretenders.