The Patriots finally got a jolt in Week 4, and now they get a chance to see if that win over the Buffalo Bills was the start of something real. New England returns home in Week 5 to face the Las Vegas Raiders, who just took their first loss of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Drake Maye was the biggest reason for the turnaround. After a rough start to the year, he looked much more like the quarterback New England needs, piling up 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception while adding 54 rushing yards. The interception total is still a problem - he’s already thrown seven through four games - but the ceiling was obvious in that bounce-back performance.
Las Vegas, meanwhile, enters at 3-1 and has done enough early to justify the record. The metrics back that up, and the Raiders have also covered the spread in every game so far. Still, there’s a case to be made for selling high after that hot start, especially with the line moving hard in New England’s direction.
That movement is the biggest number to watch. The Patriots were 8.5-point favorites on the lookahead line before the season, but the spread is now down to 3.5.
That kind of swing raises a fair question: is a four-game sample really enough to justify a five-point shift? The case for the Patriots is stronger than the market seems to suggest.
New England’s defense has held up despite the rocky opening stretch, ranking eighth in opponent success rate. The Raiders are close behind at 11th, but their offense has a more glaring issue.
They’ve had a hard time running the ball, sitting 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That puts a lot on Kirk Cousins’ arm to keep the offense moving, and the question is whether that can hold up over time.
The Patriots’ early-season stumble may have changed the narrative, but this matchup offers a chance to keep climbing. The Raiders have been good enough to earn respect, yet their inability to establish the run makes them a tougher team to trust against a defense that has quietly been one of the league’s better units.
In Other News...
Patriots May Have Found An Unexpected Special Teams Difference Maker
The Patriots win over the Bills had plenty of moving parts, but one of the more encouraging developments came from a rookie who is quickly carving out a role beyond defense. Linebacker Erick Hunter has started to stand out on special teams, where his willingness to play heavy snaps and finish tackles gave New England a jolt in a tight 29-26 victory.
For a team that is always looking for hidden value on the roster, Hunters early impact matters because special teams can swing games that are otherwise decided by thin margins. His work in that phase helped tilt the field against Buffalo, and it has given the Patriots another young player worth watching as the season moves on. [Read more 🡒]
Patriots Safeties Are Heating Up Before Their Biggest Test Yet
Through three games, Kevin Byard and Craig Woodson have started to look like a back-end pairing the Patriots can trust, and their timing has shown up in both the communication and the versatility New England has leaned on in the secondary. The two safeties spoke after the recent win about how their chemistry has grown, with each handling the kind of moving pieces that can make or break a defense in September.
The next test comes against the Raiders, and it is not a soft one for a group trying to keep building momentum. Las Vegas brings tight ends that can stress a defense in different ways, which puts added importance on the Patriots safeties staying in sync and clean with their assignments. For Byard and Woodson, the challenge is less about proving they can talk the part and more about showing they can carry that communication into another difficult matchup. [Read more 🡒]
Drake Maye Just Gave Patriots Fans Another Reason To Believe
Drake Mayes latest step forward arrived on a big stage, and it came with the kind of recognition that tends to reinforce what Patriots fans have been seeing on Sundays. After leading New England past the Bills in a 29-26 win, Maye was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the second time in his career, rewarded for a poised afternoon that included 269 passing yards, three touchdown throws and another 54 yards on the ground.
For a Patriots team still looking to define its identity, those are the kinds of performances that matter beyond the weekly award. Mayes rise is starting to become part of the conversation around New England again, and with the next game on the schedule, the challenge now is turning one encouraging showing into a consistent stretch that keeps the momentum moving in the right direction. [Read more 🡒]