The New England Patriots got a breather in Week 14, but the AFC playoff race didn’t slow down with them on the sidelines. While they were on their bye, the Denver Broncos took care of business with a 24-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders - and just like that, Denver vaulted back into the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Both teams now sit at 11-2, but Denver owns the tiebreaker thanks to a stronger record against common opponents. That’s a key detail with only four games left in the regular season. No matter how the final month shakes out, the Broncos hold the edge if the two teams finish tied.
Still, don’t count New England out of the top spot just yet. According to the latest playoff projections, the Patriots have a 51% chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That’s a coin flip with a slight lean in their favor - and they’ve got the momentum to back it up.
The Patriots are riding a 10-game win streak, the longest active run in the league. They’ve been laser-focused on the “1-0 each week” mentality, and it’s paid off in a big way.
But the road ahead won’t be easy. Up next is a Week 15 showdown with the Buffalo Bills - a team New England already beat once this season, but one that’s always dangerous, especially in December.
After that, the Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens. Don’t let the Ravens’ 6-7 record fool you - they’re a team that can punch above their weight, and they’ve got just enough playmakers to cause problems. And let’s not forget the Week 18 matchup with the Miami Dolphins, a divisional game that could carry serious playoff implications.
Meanwhile, Denver’s path to the finish line is anything but smooth. The Broncos face four teams still firmly in the playoff hunt: the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers. That’s a gauntlet of opponents who are all fighting for something - seeding, survival, or both.
So while Denver may have the tiebreaker today, the final stretch could shift the balance. If New England can keep its win streak alive - especially with a key victory over Buffalo this weekend - the race for the AFC’s top seed could come down to the wire.
Bottom line: the Patriots are in control of what they can control. And if they keep stacking wins, that No. 1 seed is still very much in play.