While the New England Patriots were off this week enjoying their well-earned bye, the rest of the AFC was anything but quiet. A flurry of results across the conference has reshuffled the playoff deck-and not necessarily in New England’s favor.
Patriots Lose Ground in Race for No. 1 Seed
The Patriots entered the bye at 11-2, perched atop the AFC as the No. 1 seed. But by the time Sunday wrapped, that top spot was no longer theirs alone.
The Denver Broncos took care of business against the Las Vegas Raiders, pulling out a 24-17 win. That might not seem like a big deal on the surface, but here’s where it gets tricky for New England: because the Patriots dropped their season opener to the Raiders, Denver now owns the head-to-head tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.
That means the Patriots no longer control their own destiny for the top seed. To lock it up, they’ll need to finish with a better record than Denver. And while the Broncos still have a gauntlet ahead-facing the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers-it’s now a scoreboard-watching situation for the Patriots the rest of the way.
Division Crown Still Within Reach
While the top seed got a bit more complicated, the path to an AFC East title remains very much in play.
The Buffalo Bills, New England’s next opponent, staged a wild comeback in a snowstorm to edge out the Cincinnati Bengals, 39-34. That win kept Buffalo in striking distance within the division at 9-4, setting up a high-stakes showdown this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
If the Patriots take care of business at home, they’ll clinch the AFC East for the first time since 2019-snapping a three-year run of Bills dominance in the division. But even if New England stumbles on Sunday, they still have a firm grip on their fate.
Wins over the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 17 and 18 would seal the division, regardless of how the Bills finish. Thanks to a stronger in-division record, the Patriots would own the tiebreaker.
So yes, Sunday is massive-but it’s not all-or-nothing.
Around the AFC: Playoff Picture Tightens
Elsewhere in the conference, the playoff race is heating up-and some familiar faces are suddenly on the outside looking in.
The Houston Texans pulled off a statement win over the Kansas City Chiefs, sliding into the No. 7 seed and bumping the Chiefs to 6-7 and out of the playoff picture for now. That’s not a sentence many expected to write this late in the season, but here we are.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers edged the Baltimore Ravens to take over first place in the AFC North. The Ravens, now 6-7, have slipped out of the playoff bracket entirely. That’s a development worth watching closely-especially with Baltimore set to visit Foxborough in Week 16.
In the AFC South, the Jaguars took down the Colts in a game with major playoff implications. The loss dropped Indy to eighth in the standings and came with a brutal blow: starting quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a torn Achilles. That’s a tough break for a team that had been hanging around the postseason mix.
And don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins are quietly making noise. After a 1-6 start, they’ve won four straight and five of six to climb to 6-7.
They’re still on the outside, and they’ll need help, but they’ve put themselves in the conversation. With a matchup against New England looming in the season finale, that could end up being a win-or-go-home scenario.
What’s Next for the Patriots
The Patriots return from their bye with everything still on the table. The No. 1 seed?
Still possible, but they’ll need help. The AFC East?
Very much within reach, and they can clinch it outright with a win over Buffalo this weekend.
Every game from here on out carries weight, and with matchups against the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, and Ravens still ahead, New England has both opportunity and peril in equal measure.
The road to the playoffs is never easy-but for the Patriots, the map is clear. Now it’s about execution.