Patriots Secondary Faces A Much Tougher Jaguars Test Than Expected

Get ready for an intriguing showdown between the Patriots and Jaguars, as both teams unveil key strategies and rising talents with plenty of implications for the season.

The Patriots and Jaguars are heading into Week 3 with plenty of talent on both sides, and Sunday’s matchup has the feel of a game where the details matter just as much as the names. New England is seeing a Jacksonville team built around a young quarterback who has found his groove, an explosive back who has taken a big step, and a defense that creates problems in different ways than the raw pass-rush numbers might suggest.

Trevor Lawrence is the center of it all, and his rise under Liam Coen has changed the conversation around Jacksonville’s offense. The word from inside the Jaguars’ orbit is simple: “Long story short, Lawrence has his swagger back.”

That wasn’t always the case. Lawrence came into the league as the No. 1 pick in 2021 after a massive high school and college run, but his early NFL years were messy.

He was dealing with Urban Meyer, an uneven supporting cast, and a team that often put too much on his shoulders. The result was a quarterback who had flashes but also too many turnovers, too much pressure to force plays, and a pocket game that slipped after years of being sped up by an unstable offensive line and injuries.

The turning point came in Week 10 last season in Houston, when Coen simplified things and told his quarterback to “let it rip.” Since then, Lawrence has looked far more like the player Jacksonville hoped it was drafting. The confidence is back, the aggression is back, and the belief around him is that he can carry a lot.

Jacksonville’s backfield has taken a leap too, and Bhayshul Tuten is a big part of that. The improvement is being credited to plain old player development.

As a rookie, he was already tougher than expected between the tackles because of his frame and contact balance, but his feel for the game needed work. This offseason, that part of his game has come along.

He’s still not the only back with talent, but his vision and lane discipline have improved enough to go with his athletic traits. That combination has made him one of the league’s most explosive skill players through two games, and a true breakout season from him would matter a lot for this offense.

The Patriots’ secondary will have its own set of decisions to make, especially with Christian Gonzalez. One approach would be to use him the way Pat Surtain II was used last week against Jacksonville: taking away the weak side of the field in zone coverage and forcing the offense to work elsewhere. Because New England leans more on man coverage than Denver, another possibility is the old Bill Belichick-style double-team plan, with Gonzalez on Parker Washington and Carlton Davis III plus safety help on Brian Thomas Jr.

Washington is the name that stands out as the most favorable matchup for New England if he ends up seeing Marcus Jones. If Washington gets Gonzalez or Davis instead, the Jaguars could still try to target Jones.

Jacksonville’s best route concept on Sunday may be to work the middle of the field, where Lawrence was 8 of 9 last week, rather than the outside, where he went 9 of 19. Expect a lot of in-breaking routes.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars’ pressure numbers are a little misleading. Their pass rush win rate is low, but they still generate pressure at a high clip because of how defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile schemes things up.

He’s being described as a coach who gets the most out of his defense by pushing them hard and putting them in the right spots. His style sits somewhere between Vic Fangio’s structure and Brian Flores’ chaos.

The formula starts with stopping the run on early downs, forcing offenses into third down, and then turning loose creative blitz packages. That’s where the unblocked pressures come from.

But the four-man rush remains a problem. Josh Hines-Allen is a standout edge defender, Travon Walker has become his running mate, and then the production drops off.

Last week was only the seventh time in Hines-Allen’s 112-game NFL career that he didn’t record a pressure. Bo Nix was barely touched, and the Jaguars couldn’t finish the job. That makes Campanile’s approach against Drake Maye especially interesting, because he’ll have to decide how aggressive to get against one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks.

There’s also the cornerback rotation to watch, with Travis Hunter still finding his footing. He has flashed at corner, but he’s still adjusting to the position and doesn’t quite look like a player who can operate on autopilot yet.

The Jaguars appear comfortable using a committee for now, with Hunter at a 58% snap rate on defense through Week 2. Montaric Brown has played 77% of the snaps, Jourdan Lewis 53%, and Jarrian Jones 67%.

That setup could matter for the Patriots’ receivers. DeMario Douglas should have a shot to do damage from the slot against Lewis, who is described as aging.

Hunter could be vulnerable to a double move or a route concept that overloads his side. Brown has also given up a 30-plus-yard catch in both games this season.

And if the Jaguars are missing a true answer at the top of the depth chart, that may be the biggest concern of all. As it was put plainly: “Jaguars fans should be relieved that A.J.

Brown is out for Sunday’s matchup. They do not have a dude who can match up against top wideouts right now.”

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