Tua Tagovailoa’s future in Miami is looking murkier by the day, and the latest trade value projections only add to the uncertainty. According to recent evaluations, the Dolphins quarterback could command no more than a conditional 2027 sixth-round pick in a potential trade. That’s a steep fall for a former top-five pick who once looked like the face of the franchise.
Let’s unpack what’s driving that valuation - and where things could go from here.
First, the quarterback market heading into 2026 is shaping up to be unusually thin. With Arch Manning returning to Texas and LaNorris Sellers staying put at South Carolina, the draft class isn’t exactly overflowing with surefire first-round talent.
Fernando Mendoza is currently the only quarterback widely viewed as a lock for Day 1, and even that comes with caveats. Still, despite the limited options, Tagovailoa’s trade value hasn’t seen a bump.
That’s telling.
There are a few key factors working against him. For one, his athletic ceiling has always been a topic of debate.
He’s accurate and efficient when protected, but he’s not a quarterback who consistently thrives outside of structure. That alone might not tank his value, but combine it with a concerning injury history and a massive contract - and you start to see why teams would be hesitant.
Tagovailoa is set to carry a $56.4 million cap hit in 2026, a number that’s hard to stomach for any team, let alone one trying to rebuild or find flexibility. That contract alone could scare off suitors, but when you factor in the new leadership in Miami - with Jon-Eric Sullivan taking over as GM and Jeff Hafley stepping in as head coach - the writing might be on the wall. Neither has ties to Tagovailoa, and that often signals a shift in direction.
From a financial standpoint, moving on from Tagovailoa would save the Dolphins $11.2 million in cap space. That’s significant, especially for a front office looking to reshape the roster. The challenge, of course, is finding a team willing to take on the contract - and that’s where things get tricky.
Right now, the New York Jets are being floated as a potential landing spot. It’s a long shot, but if their quarterback options dry up - say, if Kyler Murray stays put and free agents like Malik Willis or Daniel Jones don’t pan out - desperation could kick in. The Jets have been aggressive in the past, and if they see Tagovailoa as a stopgap or reclamation project, they might at least pick up the phone.
Beyond New York, though, the market looks bleak. Most teams either have their quarterback situation settled or are looking toward the draft or younger, cheaper options. That leaves Tagovailoa in a difficult spot: too expensive to be a backup, too risky to be a long-term solution, and too limited in trade value to spark a bidding war.
The Dolphins have a decision to make - and soon. Do they eat the cap hit and keep him on the roster in hopes of a rebound? Or do they cut bait, take the savings, and start fresh under new leadership?
Either way, the days of Tagovailoa being viewed as a franchise cornerstone in Miami appear to be over.