The New England Patriots didn’t suit up on Christmas Day, but their playoff hopes were very much on the line. With the Denver Broncos visiting Arrowhead Stadium to face a Kansas City Chiefs team missing Patrick Mahomes and already out of playoff contention, New England had reason to watch closely.
And the result wasn’t what the Patriots were hoping for.
Despite a gritty effort from the Chiefs, who were down to their third-string quarterback, Denver pulled out an ugly 20-13 win in the final minutes. It wasn’t pretty, but it was enough. The Broncos improved to 13-3, moving a half-game ahead of the 12-3 Patriots and seizing control of the race for the AFC’s top seed.
That’s a tough pill to swallow for New England. Now, the path to the No. 1 seed just got a lot steeper-and it’s no longer fully in their hands.
Here’s the situation: for the Patriots to grab the top spot in the AFC, they’ll need to win their final two games-against the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. On paper, that’s manageable. Both opponents are already eliminated from playoff contention, and New England has handled business against struggling teams this season.
But even if the Patriots take care of their own schedule, they’ll still need help. Specifically, they need the Los Angeles Chargers to knock off the Broncos in Week 18. That’s where things get tricky.
Denver will be at home for that game and will have the benefit of extra rest. The Chargers, meanwhile, could be playing with little motivation if they drop their upcoming matchup against the Houston Texans. If LA’s postseason hopes are dashed before Week 18, there’s a real chance they don’t come out swinging in Denver.
And if the Patriots and Broncos both finish 13-4? Denver owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Add the Jacksonville Jaguars into the mix-if they also finish 13-4-and New England would find itself on the wrong end of that three-way tie as well. Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker in that scenario.
So what’s left for the Patriots? Focus and urgency.
The first goal is clear: win the AFC East. That can happen as soon as this weekend.
If New England beats the Jets and the Buffalo Bills fall to the Philadelphia Eagles, the division crown is theirs-and with it, a home playoff game for the first time in six years. That would be a significant milestone for a franchise that’s been rebuilding its identity post-Brady.
The bigger prize-the top seed and a first-round bye-is still technically in play. But it’s going to require a little help from the Chargers and a lot of execution down the stretch.
For now, the Patriots can only control what’s in front of them. Two games.
Two winnable matchups. And a whole lot riding on how things shake out elsewhere in the AFC.