The New England Patriots’ 10-game winning streak had them flirting with the AFC’s top seed not long ago, but with just three games left in the regular season, the path to home-field advantage has narrowed - and fast. After peaking with a 59% chance to lock up the No. 1 spot, their odds have plummeted to just 10%. That’s a steep drop, and Sunday’s 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills was the tipping point.
But truth be told, the Patriots were already skating on thin ice heading into Week 15. Denver had the inside track thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, and now, with the Broncos sitting two games ahead in the standings, the math is no longer in New England’s favor. Denver, at 12-2, is now a 73% favorite to finish atop the AFC - a position that would run the conference playoffs through Mile High, not Foxborough.
And it’s not just about chasing Denver anymore. New England’s grip on the No. 2 seed isn’t exactly firm either.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are just one game back and would win a tiebreaker based on conference record. The Bills, fresh off their win over the Patriots, are also just one game behind and still have two divisional games left - against the Jets and Dolphins - that could swing the standings even further.
Here’s how the AFC playoff picture stacks up after Week 15:
AFC Standings: 1.
Denver Broncos (12-2)
2.
New England Patriots (11-3)
3.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6)
5.
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
6.
Buffalo Bills (10-4)
7.
Houston Texans (9-5)
On the Bubble:
8.
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
9.
Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Eliminated:
10.
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
11.
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
12.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
13.
New York Jets (3-11)
14.
Cleveland Browns (3-11)
15.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
16.
Tennessee Titans (2-12)
The Patriots’ next stop? Baltimore.
And while the Ravens haven’t been the model of consistency this season, they’re still alive - barely. A loss this week, paired with a Steelers win over the playoff-hungry Lions, would drop Baltimore’s postseason odds to just 10%.
That’s a razor-thin margin for error. But they’re coming off a dominant 24-0 shutout of Cincinnati, and with Lamar Jackson under center and John Harbaugh on the sideline, they’re not going down without a fight.
Over in the NFC, the playoff picture is just as tight - and just as unforgiving. Here’s how things look with three weeks to go:
NFC Standings: 1.
Los Angeles Rams (11-3)
2.
Chicago Bears (10-4)
3.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)
4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
5.
Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
6.
San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
7.
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
On the Bubble:
8.
Detroit Lions (8-6)
9.
Carolina Panthers (7-7)
10.
Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Eliminated:
11.
Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
12.
Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
13.
New Orleans Saints (4-10)
14.
Washington Commanders (4-10)
15.
Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
16.
New York Giants (2-12)
Six teams are already out, and two of the three still clinging to hope are on life support. The exception?
Carolina. The Panthers are just one Buccaneers stumble away from reclaiming the NFC South lead.
It’s a division that’s been anything but predictable, and the final three weeks could flip the standings yet again.
Bottom line: The playoff race is heating up on both sides of the league. The Patriots are in, but their margin for error is shrinking.
The Ravens are fighting to stay alive. And across the NFC, the battle for positioning - and survival - is just getting started.
Buckle up. December football is here, and it’s not letting up.